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Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update!

Musings on Markets

In a third post on July 1, 2022 , I pointed to inflation as a key culprit in the retreat of risk capital, i.e., capital invested in the riskiest segments of every market, and presented evidence of the impact on risk premiums (bond default spreads and equity risk premiums) in markets.

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2024 Investment & Market Updates: How to Reverse a Painful Year with AI Hype and a Frenzied 2-Month Rally

Brian DeChesare

and far too little in equities. When the markets rallied after the initial COVID sell-off in March 2020, I put more cash into equities and real estate. Treasuries. And I reallocated these proceeds into crypto and equities and put in some excess cash. But my real estate investment funds were down ~10% , which hurt.

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In Search of a Steady State: Inflation, Interest Rates and Value

Musings on Markets

There are three possible explanations for the divergence: Short term versus Long term : The consumer survey extracts an expectation of inflation in the near term, whereas the treasury markets are providing a longer term perspective, since I am using ten-year rates to derive the market-implied inflation.

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Data Update 2 for 2022: US Stocks kept winning in 2021, but…

Musings on Markets

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.

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A Follow up on Inflation: The Disparate Effects on Company Values!

Musings on Markets

In my last post , I discussed how inflation's return has changed the calculus for investors, looking at how inflation affects returns on different asset classes, and tracing out the consequences for equity values, in the aggregate.

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The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor!

Musings on Markets

If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. How, you may ask, can equity risk premiums be that divergent, and does that imply that anything goes?

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Can the World’s Largest Carmaker Handle the ESG Pressure?

Andrew Stolz

The repurchase has helped to keep return on equity above its target of 10%. The item “Other” contains the treasury stock. It is deducted from equity when the company buys back its own shares. The company pays out dividends on a consistent basis. Dividend payout ratio is almost constant around 30%. Ratios – Toyota.