Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.

Risk Premium 80

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 80

Musings on Markets

MAY 6, 2022

There are three possible explanations for the divergence: Short term versus Long term : The consumer survey extracts an expectation of inflation in the near term, whereas the treasury markets are providing a longer term perspective, since I am using ten-year rates to derive the market-implied inflation.

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Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups Equity 92

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 5, 2023

If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. How, you may ask, can equity risk premiums be that divergent, and does that imply that anything goes?

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Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Treasury 78

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

In this post, I will begin by chronicling the damage done to equities during 2022, before putting the year in historical context, and then examine how developments during the year have affected expectations for the future. Actual Returns Your returns on equities come in one of two forms. Stocks: The What? at the start of that year.

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Equity Risk Premium Start-ups Dividends 70

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

The consensus can be wrong : A few months ago, I made the mistake of watching Moneyheist, a show on Netflix, based upon its high audience ratings on Rotten Tomatoes , and as I wasted hours on this abysmal show, I got a reminder that crowds can be wrong, and sometimes woefully so.

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Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 91

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

With equities, the metric that has been in use the longest is the PE ratio, modified in recent years to the CAPE, where earnings are normalized (by averaging over time) and sometimes adjusted for inflation. Note that nothing that I have said so far is premised on modern portfolio theory, or any academic view of risk premiums.

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Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Equity Dividends 52