Musings on Markets

JULY 1, 2022

As inflation has taken center stage, markets have gone into retreat globally, and across asset classes. In 2022, as bond rates have risen, stock prices have fallen, and crypto has imploded, even true believers are questioning what the bottom for markets might be, and when we will get there.

Marketability 88

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Equity 88

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 11, 2023

In the month since, I have added two more data updates, one on US equities and one on interest rates , but my attention was drawn away by other interesting stories. Default Risk As with individuals and businesses, governments (sovereigns) borrow money and sometimes struggle to pay them back, leading to to the specter of sovereign default.

Risk Premium 76

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Marketability 76

Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 27, 2022

By the start of 2022, the window for early action had closed and for much of this year, inflation has been the elephant in the room, driving markets and forcing central banks to be reactive, and its presence has already induced me to write three posts on its impact.

Risk Premium 74

Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups Equity 74

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 24, 2024

In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery. In fact, treasury bill rates consistently rise ahead of the Fed's actions over the two years.

Treasury 52

Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 6, 2022

The nature of markets is that they are never quite settled, as investors recalibrate expectations constantly and reset prices. Clearly, we are not in one of those time periods, as markets approach bipolar territory, with big moves up and down.

Risk Premium 92

Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups Equity 92

Andrew Stolz

AUGUST 5, 2020

It helps an investor understand what to expect to earn in relation to the risk-free rate and the market return. CAPM assumes that the minimum a rational investor would earn is the risk-free rate by buying the risk-free asset. Investments are exposed to two types of risk: systematic and unsystematic. E(r) = Rf + ??(Rm

Risk-free Rate 52

Risk-free Rate Beta Weighted Average Cost of Capital Risk Premium 52

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. The Interest Rates Story To me the biggest story of markets in 2021 has been the rise of interest rates, especially at the long end of the maturity spectrum.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. The rise in rates transmitted to corporate bond market rates, with a concurrent rise in default spreads exacerbating the damage to investors. in 2022, higher than the 1- 1.5%

Treasury 74

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Equity 74

Musings on Markets

JULY 27, 2022

The market clearly had a very different view, as the stock premiered at ? I argued then that notwithstanding the potential growth in the market, and Zomato's advantageous positioning, it was being over priced for its IPO, at ? grow at the cost of equity), yielding about ?46 41 per share. 169 per share in late 2021. higher (i.e.,

Risk Premium 81

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Marketability 81

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

As the world's attention is focused on the war in the Ukraine, it is the human toll, in death and injury, that should get our immediate attention, and you may find a focus on economics and markets to be callous. The increase in default spreads was not restricted to foreign markets, as fear also pushed up spreads in the corporate bond market.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even in the long term. Stocks: The What?

Equity 70

Equity Risk Premium Start-ups Dividends 70

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

To start the year, I returned to a ritual that I have practiced for thirty years, and that is to take a look at not just market changes over the last year, but also to get measures of the financial standing and practices of companies around the world. Happy New Year, and I hope that 2022 brings you good tidings!

Risk Premium 91

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 91

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 10, 2021

Cost of raising funds (capital) : Since the funds that are invested by a business come from equity investors and lenders, one way in which the hurdle rate is computed is by looking at how much it costs the investing company to raise those funds.

Risk-free Rate 52

Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Start-ups Equity 52

Equilest

JULY 31, 2022

In Finance - the beta represents how sensitive the stock price is concerning the market price change (index). The beta measures the return of the stock relative to the market return. For example, when the stock market goes up 1%, and the stock goes up 0.5%, then the stock beta is equal to 0.5.

Beta 40

Beta Business Valuation Finance Discounted Cash Flow 40

Andrew Stolz

AUGUST 6, 2020

The return on assets is determined by systematic factors such as changes in inflation , risk premiums, interest rates, etc. Investors construct portfolios with unsystematic risks, which are well-diversified to reduce total portfolio risk. In theory, arbitrage provides investors with a high chance of success. 1 + RP1 + ??2+

Risk-free Rate 52

Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Beta Marketability 52

Equilest

APRIL 11, 2023

With limited features and formulas, it can be difficult to account for all the necessary parameters in a valuation, such as interest rates, equity risk premiums, and beta. Additionally, Excel does not have market analysis reports or all the necessary parameters to create an accurate valuation.

Business Valuation 40

Business Valuation Beta Risk Premium Discounted Cash Flow 40

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

I spent the first week of 2021 in the same way that I have spent the first week of every year since 1995, collecting data on publicly traded companies and analyzing how they navigated the cross currents of the prior year, both in operating and market value terms.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Simply Treasury

AUGUST 2, 2022

The idea is not new to encourage companies to increase their capitalization and reduce their bank debt (partly through more recourse to the capital market - CMU project). DEBRA Proposal (« Debt-Equity Bias Reduction Allowance). risk premium if the company is an SME as defined by European law).

Equity 52

Equity Risk Premium Banking Finance 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

It is to remedy this defect that analysts scale profits to invested capital, with equity and capital variants: In the equity version, you divide net income by book equity to estimate a return on equity, a measure of what equity investors are generating on the capital they have invested in a company.

Equity 52

Equity Start-ups Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2024

Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. Energy, one of the few survivors of the 2022 market sell-off, had a bad year, as did utilities and consumer staples. increase in market capitalization.

Risk Premium 77

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Treasury 77

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

I am not a market prognosticator for a simple reason. I am just not good at it, and the first six months of 2023 illustrate why market timing is often the impossible dream, something that every investor aspires to be successful at, but very few succeed on a consistent basis.

Marketability 95

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 95

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

By the end of 2021, it was clear that this bout of inflation was not as transient a phenomenon as some had made it out to be, and the big question leading in 2022, for investors and markets, is how inflation will play out during the year, and beyond, and the consequences for stocks, bonds and currencies.

Risk-free Rate 84

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 84

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

To fund the business, you can either use borrowed money (debt) or owner's funds (equity), and while both are sources of capital, they represent different claims on the business. Even government-owned businesses fall under its umbrella, with the key difference being that equity is provided by the taxpayers.

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Brian DeChesare

MAY 3, 2023

And it values the company today based on the present value of its dividends and that potential future value (either the stock price or the Equity Value via the Terminal Value calculation). And Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) must distribute almost all their Net Income, so the DDM can work well in REIT valuations.

Dividends 64

Dividends Terminal Value Enterprise Value Equity 64

Andrew Stolz

MARCH 20, 2020

A firm uses a mix of equity and debt to minimize the cost of capital. In general, the cost of debt is lower than the cost of equity due to the tax advantage of debt. The cost of equity (Ke) is an expected return that a firm pays to an equity investor to compensate for the risk of investing capital.

Beta 52

Beta Capital Structure Risk-free Rate Weighted Average Cost of Capital 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

Investors are constantly in search of a single metric that will tell them whether a market is under or over valued, and consequently whether they should buying or selling holdings in that market. Note that nothing that I have said so far is premised on modern portfolio theory, or any academic view of risk premiums.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Equity Dividends 52

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

I have been writing about, and valuing, Tesla for most of its lifetime in public markets, and while it remains a company that draws strong reactions, it is also one that I truly enjoy valuing. Tesla: The Back Story I first valued Tesla in 2013 , as a "luxury automobile company" and I have valued almost every year since.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 99

Chris Mercer

MARCH 7, 2024

The second and third musings address the issue of marketability discounts and conclude that it is not possible to comply with any valuation standards, whether USPAP or not, using only averages of restricted stock studies as a basis for “guessing” marketability discounts. The relevant pool of potential buyers, if any.

Dividends 52

Dividends Appraisal Terminal Value Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

Thus, looking at only the companies in the S&P 500 may give you more reliable data, with fewer missing observations, but your results will reflect what large market cap companies in any sector or industry do, rather than what is typical for that industry.

Dividends 98

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 98

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2022

In the first few weeks of 2022, we have had repeated reminders from the market that risk never goes away for good, even in the most buoyant markets, and that when it returns, investors still seem to be surprised that it is there.

Risk Premium 67

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 67

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

Expected returns for Risky Investments : The risk-free rate becomes the base on which you build to estimate expected returns on all other investments. For instance, if you read my last post on equity risk premiums , I described the equity risk premium as the additional return you would demand, over and above the risk free rate.

Risk-free Rate 80

Risk-free Rate Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 80

Equilest

JUNE 10, 2023

It helps owners determine the fair market value of their business, which is essential when considering a sale, merger, or acquisition. Market Conditions and Industry Trends Evaluating the current market conditions and industry trends is critical in assessing the value of a tax preparation business.

Business Valuation 40

Business Valuation Fair Market Value Marketability Technology 40

Equilest

JUNE 13, 2023

Geographic Location and Market Demand The geographic location of a disaster restoration business plays a significant role in its valuation. The local market dynamics, competition, and potential for future growth are crucial factors to consider when valuing a business. The total value of these assets forms the basis for the valuation.

Business Valuation 52

Business Valuation Asset-based Approach Appraisal Intangible Assets 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Deconstructing Risk While we may use statistical measures like volatility or correlation to measure risk in practice, risk is not a statistical abstraction. Its impact is not just financial, but emotional and physical, and it predates markets. 4 & 5 Uninsurable Risk.

Risk Premium 74

Risk Premium Start-ups Beta Marketability 74

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 12, 2021

I take the point of view that uncertainty should not stop you from valuing companies, that your value estimates will have more error in them, but since the market also faces the same uncertainty, your best bargains may be in the midst of uncertainty. That tells me three things.

Corporate Finance 52

Corporate Finance Start-ups Finance Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2021

In my last post , I described the wild ride that the price of risk took in 2020, with equity risk premiums and default spreads initially sky rocketing, as the virus led to global economic shutdowns, and then just as abruptly dropping back to pre-crisis levels over the course of the year.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Marketability Equity Treasury 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

Counter made-up numbers : It remains true that people (analysts, market experts, politicians) often make assertions based upon either incomplete or flawed data, or no data at all. Data universe : In my sample, I include all publicly traded firms with market capitalizations that exceed zero, traded anywhere in the world.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends EBITDA Start-ups 52