Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In this post, I will begin with a historical assessment of stock returns in the recent past, then move on to evaluate the returns that investors can expect to make, given how they are priced at the start of 2022, and end with a do-it-yourself valuation of the index right now. The year that was.

Risk Premium 80

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 80

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. The arrival of the COVID in February 2020, and the ensuing market meltdown, causing treasury rates to plummet across the spectrum, with three-month T.bill rates dropping from 1.5%

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

The Market Reaction As the rhetoric of war has heated up in the last few months, markets were wary about the possibility of war, but as Russian troops have advanced into the Ukraine, that wariness has turned to sell off across markets. As Russian equities have imploded, the ripple effects again are being felt across the globe.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

Corporate Bonds: No Shortage of Risk Capital In my last post, I chronicled the movement in the equity risk premium, i.e. the price of risk in the equity market, during 2021, but the bond market has its own, and more measurable, price of risk in the form of corporate default spreads.

Risk-free Rate 84

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 84

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

While this may seem perverse, the first step in understanding and assessing where we are in markets now is to go back and examine where things stood then. trillion in market value in the first six months in the year , but the severity of last year's decline has still left them $14.4 US Equities in 2023: Into the Weeds!

Marketability 95

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 95

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

These assertions may very well be true, but cheap and expensive, at least in pricing terms, is relative, and looking at the data can help you detect rules of thumb that work from those that do not. Data universe : In my sample, I include all publicly traded firms with market capitalizations that exceed zero, traded anywhere in the world.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends EBITDA Start-ups 52