Musings on Markets
JANUARY 19, 2022
When you augment this price change with the dividends on the index during 2021, the total return on the S&P 500 for 2021 was 28.47%. With equities, the cash flows take the form of dividends and buybacks, and in addition to estimating them using future growth rates, you have to assume that they continue in perpetuity.
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 28, 2024
I use the data through the end of 2023 to compute all three measures for every company, and in my first breakdown, I look at these risk measures, by sector (globally): Utilities are the safest or close to the safest , on all three price-based measures, but there are divergences on the other risk measures.
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Musings on Markets
JANUARY 8, 2022
Most of the variables that I report are micro variables, relating to company choices on investing, financing and dividend policies, or to data that may be needed to value these companies. I extend my equity risk premium approach to cover other countries, using sovereign default spreads as my starting point, at this link.
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 17, 2024
The first is that it was an uneven recovery, if you break stocks down be sector, which I have, for both US and global stocks, in the table below: As you can see, technology was the biggest winner of the year, up almost 58% (44%) for US (global) stocks, with communication services and consumer discretionary as the next best performers.
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 9, 2021
By focusing so much attention on a small subset of companies, you risk developing tunnel vision, especially when doing peer group comparisons. In the same dataset where I compute historical equity risk premiums, I report historical returns on corporate bonds in two ratings classes (Moody’s Aaa and Baa ratings).
Musings on Markets
NOVEMBER 9, 2021
I would be lying if I said that I have had clarity about Tesla's story over the last decade, because it has so many tangents, distractions and shifts along the way, flirting with narratives about being a battery company, an energy company and a technology company. for mature markets.
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 6, 2023
When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (risk premiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage. I do report on a few market-wide data items especially on risk premiums for both equity and debt. Goodwill & Impairment 4.
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