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Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation!

Musings on Markets

I use the data through the end of 2023 to compute all three measures for every company, and in my first breakdown, I look at these risk measures, by sector (globally): Utilities are the safest or close to the safest , on all three price-based measures, but there are divergences on the other risk measures.

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Data Update 2 for 2022: US Stocks kept winning in 2021, but…

Musings on Markets

Using S&P's sector classification, I take a look at how each one did in 2022, looking at the percent changes in market capitalization: In contrast to 2020, when technology and consumer discretionary firms ran well ahead of the pack, the best performing sectors in 2021 were energy and real estate, two of the biggest laggards in 2020.

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Market Bipolarity: Exuberance versus Exhaustion!

Musings on Markets

Price of Risk The drop in stock and bond prices in the third quarter of 2023 can partly be attributed to rising interest rates, but how much of that drop is due to the price of risk changing? below the index value of 4288, confirming my base case conclusion.

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Data Update 1 for 2022: It is Moneyball Time!

Musings on Markets

Risk Premiums : You cannot make informed financial decisions, without having measures of the price of risk in markets, and I report my estimates for these values for both debt and equity markets. I extend my equity risk premium approach to cover other countries, using sovereign default spreads as my starting point, at this link.

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Russia in Ukraine: Let Loose the Dogs of War!

Musings on Markets

The overriding message in all of this data is that Russia/Ukraine war has unleashed fears in the bond market, and once unleashed that fear has pushed up worries about default and default risk premia across the board.

Start-ups 100
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Data Update 1 for 2021: A (Data) Look Back at a Most Forgettable Year (2020)!

Musings on Markets

By focusing so much attention on a small subset of companies, you risk developing tunnel vision, especially when doing peer group comparisons. In the same dataset where I compute historical equity risk premiums, I report historical returns on corporate bonds in two ratings classes (Moody’s Aaa and Baa ratings).

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Data Update 2 for 2024: A Stock Comeback - Winning the Expectations Game!

Musings on Markets

The first is that it was an uneven recovery, if you break stocks down be sector, which I have, for both US and global stocks, in the table below: As you can see, technology was the biggest winner of the year, up almost 58% (44%) for US (global) stocks, with communication services and consumer discretionary as the next best performers.