Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first has been the steep rise in treasury rates in the last twelve weeks, as investors reassess expected economic growth over the rest of the year and worry about inflation. The Interest Rates Story To me the biggest story of markets in 2021 has been the rise of interest rates, especially at the long end of the maturity spectrum.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021).

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Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 80

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

That said, the three primary inflation indices in the US, the CPI, the PPI and the GDP deflator all told the same story in 2021: Download historical inflation numbers The inflation rate during the course of the year reached levels not seen in close to 40 years, with every price index registering a surge.

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Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 84

Musings on Markets

JULY 1, 2022

In 2022, as bond rates have risen, stock prices have fallen, and crypto has imploded, even true believers are questioning what the bottom for markets might be, and when we will get there. Not only will default spreads widen more for lower-rated bonds, but there will be less bond issuances by riskier companies.

Marketability 88

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Equity 88

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

Even the ratings agencies, normally slow to act, have been moving promptly, with Moody's lowering Russia's rating from Ba2 to B3 on March 3, from B3 to Ca on March 6 and from Ca to C on March 8, and Ukraine's rating from B3 to Caa2 on March 4. Other ratings agencies have also taken similar actions.

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Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the rate on that investment becomes the base on which you build, to get to expected returns on risky assets and investments. What is a risk free investment? For an investment to be risk free then, it has to meet two conditions.

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Risk-free Rate Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 80

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

The consensus can be wrong : A few months ago, I made the mistake of watching Moneyheist, a show on Netflix, based upon its high audience ratings on Rotten Tomatoes , and as I wasted hours on this abysmal show, I got a reminder that crowds can be wrong, and sometimes woefully so.

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Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 91

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2024

As we move into 2024, it looks like expectations have been reset, with most forecasters now expecting the economy to glide in for a soft landing and interest rates to decline, and while that may seem like good news, it will represent a challenge for equity market investors.

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Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Treasury 77

Simply Treasury

AUGUST 2, 2022

The definition of "net equity" is as follows: equity of the company = sum of subscribed capital, share premiums, revaluation reserves, reserves and retained earnings, minus the tax value of the company's holdings in associated companies and the tax value of its own shares. risk premium if the company is an SME as defined by European law).

Equity 52

Equity Risk Premium Banking Finance 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

To illustrate, consider a practice in valuation, where analysts are trained to add a small cap premium to discount rates for smaller companies, on the intuition that they are riskier than larger companies. As markets and companies have moved on, many of them no longer work, but investors continue to use them.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

The premium that investors demand over and above the risk free rate is the equity risk premium , and practitioners in finance have wrestled with how best to estimate that number, since it is not easily observable (unlike the expected return on a bond which manifests as a current market interest rate).

Equity 70

Equity Risk Premium Start-ups Dividends 70

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

At the start of the year, the consensus of market experts was that this would be a difficult year for markets, given the macro worries about inflation and an impending recession, and adding in the fear of the Fed raising rates to this mix made bullishness a rare commodity on Wall Street.

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Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 95

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

The failures of the signal have been variously attributed to low interest rates, accounting mis-measurement of earnings (especially at tech companies), and by some, to animal spirits. Note that nothing that I have said so far is premised on modern portfolio theory, or any academic view of risk premiums.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Equity Dividends 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

Along the way, it has been a bumpy ride, as the market wrestles with two competing forces, with an economy growing faster than expected, acting as a positive, and worries that this growth will bring with it higher inflation and interest rates, as a negative. How do you measure inflation?

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55

ThomsonReuters

MAY 6, 2021

A discounted cash flow approach involves projecting a stream of cash flows for an item and then applying a discount rate to those cash flows to calculate a single value or a range of values for that item. Developing Assumptions for Expected Cash Flows and the Discount Rate. The discount rate. Discount Rate.

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Discounted Cash Flow Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Intangible Assets 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2021

In my last post , I described the wild ride that the price of risk took in 2020, with equity risk premiums and default spreads initially sky rocketing, as the virus led to global economic shutdowns, and then just as abruptly dropping back to pre-crisis levels over the course of the year. 06) and 10-year T.Bonds (-0.48).

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Start-ups Marketability Equity Treasury 52

Valutico

OCTOBER 20, 2022

The DCF method takes the value of the company to be equal to all future cash flows of that business, discounted to a present value by using an appropriate discount rate. r = interest rate (or discount rate). {n} r = discount rate. This is the rate of return you’d get if you invested your money today instead. .

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Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Value Weighted Average Cost of Capital Net Present Value 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 11, 2021

In my last post, I looked at the Biden Administration's proposal to increase corporate taxes, to provide funding for an infrastructure bill, and concluded that while there is room for raising corporate taxes, it would be more efficient and fairer to do so by reducing the tax credits and deductions in the code, than by raising the tax rate.

Dividends 52

Dividends Start-ups Risk Premium Treasury 52

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

Violence across the Globe When a country is exposed to violence, either from the outside or from within, it not only exposes its citizens to physical risk (of assault or death), but also makes it more difficult to run businesses within its borders.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52