Musings on Markets
JANUARY 24, 2024
Government Bond/Bill Rates in 2023 I will start by looking at government bond rates across the world, with the emphasis on US treasuries, which suffered their worst year in history in 2022, down close to 20% for the year, as interest rates surged. The Fed Effect: Where's the beef? The Fed Effect: Where's the beef?
Musings on Markets
JULY 13, 2022
Country Risk: Equity Risk For equity investors, the price of risk is captured by the equity risk premium, and equity risk premiums will vary across countries. That increase in interest rates is not restricted to the US dollar, as local currency government bond rates have risen around the world.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 19, 2022
In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021).
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 27, 2022
Put simply, no central bank, no matter how powerful, can force market interest rates down, if inflation expectations stay low, or up, if investor are anticipating high inflation. Note that the decrease in default spreads, at least for the lower ratings, mirrors the drop in the implied equity risk premium during the course of 2021.
Musings on Markets
AUGUST 5, 2023
If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. That said, I don't blame you, if are confused not only about how I estimate this premium, but what it measures.
Musings on Markets
OCTOBER 4, 2023
The Markets in the Third Quarter Coming off a year of rising rates in 2022, interest rates have continued to command center stage in 2023. At the start of October, the ten-year and thirty-year rates were both approaching 15-year highs, with the 10-year treasury at 4.59% and the 30-year treasury rate at 4.73%.
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 30, 2023
The US treasury market, considered by some still as a safe haven, was anything but safe or a haven, especially at the long maturities, as long term rates soared, with inflation (not the Fed) being the key driver. That is good advice in most years, but 2022 was not one of those years.
Expert insights. Personalized for you.
52 
Let's personalize your content