Musings on Markets

MAY 20, 2022

Historical Data: 1930-2019 To see how this framework works in practice, let's start by looking at the performance of US stocks, across the decades, and look at the returns on stocks, broadly categorized based on market capitalization and price to book ratios.

Price to Book 96

Price to Book Dividends Beta Equity 96

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

I am just not good at it, and the first six months of 2023 illustrate why market timing is often the impossible dream, something that every investor aspires to be successful at, but very few succeed on a consistent basis. Markets, as is their wont, live to surprise, and the first six months of 2023 has wrong-footed the experts (again).

Marketability 95

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 95

Musings on Markets

MAY 7, 2023

An investor who buys a good bank at too high a price, given its goodness, will underperform one who buys a bad bank at too low a price, given its badness. Consequently, you can only value the equity in a bank, and by extension, the only pricing multiples you can use to price banks are equity multiples (PE, Price to Book etc.).

Banking 63

Banking Price to Book Dividends Book Value 63

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

The Lead In To understand the market effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we need to start with an assessment of the two countries, and their places in the global political, economic and market landscape, leading in.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 4, 2023

The Lead In As noted in the introductory paragraph, I start from a position of ignorance about the Adani Group, and it thus made sense to fill in that gap. First, they are infrastructure businesses , requiring large up-front investments and having long gestation periods, with regulatory and government oversight.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Market Capitalization Equity Marketability 100

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

By the end of 2021, it was clear that this bout of inflation was not as transient a phenomenon as some had made it out to be, and the big question leading in 2022, for investors and markets, is how inflation will play out during the year, and beyond, and the consequences for stocks, bonds and currencies.

Risk-free Rate 84

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 84

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. That is not true!

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends EBITDA Start-ups 52