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A Follow up on Inflation: The Disparate Effects on Company Values!

Musings on Markets

In my last post , I discussed how inflation's return has changed the calculus for investors, looking at how inflation affects returns on different asset classes, and tracing out the consequences for equity values, in the aggregate. The former is short hand for the small cap premium and the latter is the proxy for the value factor in returns.

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Interest Rates, Earning Growth and Equity Value: Investment Implications

Musings on Markets

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. The arrival of the COVID in February 2020, and the ensuing market meltdown, causing treasury rates to plummet across the spectrum, with three-month T.bill rates dropping from 1.5%

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Russia in Ukraine: Let Loose the Dogs of War!

Musings on Markets

The Market Reaction As the rhetoric of war has heated up in the last few months, markets were wary about the possibility of war, but as Russian troops have advanced into the Ukraine, that wariness has turned to sell off across markets. As Russian equities have imploded, the ripple effects again are being felt across the globe.

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Data Update 2 for 2022: US Stocks kept winning in 2021, but…

Musings on Markets

In this post, I will begin with a historical assessment of stock returns in the recent past, then move on to evaluate the returns that investors can expect to make, given how they are priced at the start of 2022, and end with a do-it-yourself valuation of the index right now. The year that was.

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Data Update 1 for 2021: A (Data) Look Back at a Most Forgettable Year (2020)!

Musings on Markets

The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.

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Market Resilience or Investors In Denial? A Mid-year Assessment for 2023!

Musings on Markets

While this may seem perverse, the first step in understanding and assessing where we are in markets now is to go back and examine where things stood then. trillion in market value in the first six months in the year , but the severity of last year's decline has still left them $14.4 US Equities in 2023: Into the Weeds!

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Data Update 1 for 2023: Setting the table!

Musings on Markets

Data universe : In my sample, I include all publicly traded firms with market capitalizations that exceed zero, traded anywhere in the world. I do report on a few market-wide data items especially on risk premiums for both equity and debt. Cost of Equity 1. Standard deviation in stock price 2.