Musings on Markets

JANUARY 24, 2024

In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery.

Treasury 52

Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Andrew Stolz

AUGUST 5, 2020

If an investor moves money from the risk-free asset into the stock market, they should expect to earn a return in excess of the risk-free rate, what is called an equity risk premium. These risks can be reduced through the diversification of a portfolio. How Do You Calculate the Capital Asset Pricing Model?

Risk-free Rate 52

Risk-free Rate Beta Weighted Average Cost of Capital Risk Premium 52

Musings on Markets

JULY 1, 2022

And Consequences If you are wondering why you should care about risk capital's ebbs and flows, it is because you will feel its effects in almost everything you do in investing and business. That pullback has had its consequences, with equity risk premiums rising around the world.

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Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Equity 88

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

That said, it is my experience with markets that has also made me skeptical about the over selling of both notions, since we have an entire branch of finance (behavioral finance/economics) that has developed to explain how more data does not always lead to better decisions and why crowds can often be collectively wrong.

Risk Premium 91

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 91

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. Historical Context In my earlier post, I noted that US equity market performance in 2022 made it the seventh worst year in stock market history, if you go back to 1928.

Treasury 74

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Equity 74

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

In this post, I will begin by chronicling the damage done to equities during 2022, before putting the year in historical context, and then examine how developments during the year have affected expectations for the future. Actual Returns Your returns on equities come in one of two forms. Stocks: The What?

Equity 70

Equity Risk Premium Start-ups Dividends 70

Simply Treasury

AUGUST 2, 2022

DEBRA Proposal (« Debt-Equity Bias Reduction Allowance). In early May, the European Commission unveiled its proposal for a "DEBRA" (Debt-equity bias reduction allowance) Directive, aimed at encouraging companies to finance their investments with equity and capital contributions, instead of resorting to loans (bank or other).

Equity 52

Equity Risk Premium Banking Finance 52

Andrew Stolz

AUGUST 6, 2020

The return on assets is determined by systematic factors such as changes in inflation , risk premiums, interest rates, etc. Investors construct portfolios with unsystematic risks, which are well-diversified to reduce total portfolio risk. In theory, arbitrage provides investors with a high chance of success. 1 + RP1 + ??2+

Risk-free Rate 52

Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Beta Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

To fund the business, you can either use borrowed money (debt) or owner's funds (equity), and while both are sources of capital, they represent different claims on the business. Even government-owned businesses fall under its umbrella, with the key difference being that equity is provided by the taxpayers.

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

I have also developed a practice in the last decade of spending much of January exploring what the data tells us, and does not tell us, about the investing, financing and dividend choices that companies made during the most recent year. Beta & Risk 1. Return on Equity 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2.

Dividends 98

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 12, 2021

Corporate Finance : Corporate finance is the development of the first financial principles that govern how to run a business. It is that mission that makes corporate finance the ultimate big picture class, one that everyone (entrepreneurs, investors, analysts, business observers) should take. Of course, but with two caveats.

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Corporate Finance Start-ups Finance Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2022

In this post, I will start with a working definition of riskt that we can get some degree of agreement about, and then look at multiple measures of risk, both at the company and country level. In closing, I will talk about some of the more dangerous delusions that undercut good risk taking. What is risk?

Risk Premium 67

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 67

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the rate on that investment becomes the base on which you build, to get to expected returns on risky assets and investments. What is a risk free investment? Why does the risk-free rate matter?

Risk-free Rate 80

Risk-free Rate Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 80

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

In this post , I argued that one of the key dividing lines between the two groups was flexibility , with companies with more flexible investing, financing and dividend policies winning out over companies with more rigidity on those dimensions. for mature markets. What’s your story?

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

Check rules of thumb : Investing and corporate finance are full of rules of thumb, many of long standing. When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (risk premiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage. Cost of Equity 1.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends EBITDA Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2024

In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.

Equity 79

Equity Book Value Start-ups Corporate Finance 79

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2021

In my last post , I described the wild ride that the price of risk took in 2020, with equity risk premiums and default spreads initially sky rocketing, as the virus led to global economic shutdowns, and then just as abruptly dropping back to pre-crisis levels over the course of the year.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Marketability Equity Treasury 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 11, 2021

With stocks, I compute this pre-personal tax return at the start of every month, using the current level of index and expected cash flows to back out an internal rate of return; this is the basis for the implied equity risk premium.

Dividends 52

Dividends Start-ups Risk Premium Treasury 52