Musings on Markets

APRIL 7, 2025

Note that while Canada and Mexico were not on the Wednesday list of tariff targets that was released on Wednesday, they have been targeted separately, and that the remaining countries that do not show up on this map (Russia and North Korea, for instance) are under sanctions that prevent them from trading in the first place.

Marketability

Musings on Markets

MAY 6, 2022

In most time periods, those recalibrations and resets tend to be small and in both directions, resulting in the ups and downs that pass for normal volatility. Clearly, we are not in one of those time periods, as markets approach bipolar territory, with big moves up and down.

Risk Premium

Brian DeChesare

JANUARY 4, 2023

In March, the Fed finally started hiking rates, and in May and June, the pace accelerated; the federal funds rate ended the year in the 4.25% – 4.50% range, the highest level since 2007. Here it is as of January 3 rd , with differences vs. the start of 2022 in brackets: Equities: 31% [Down 7%]. Treasuries: 19% [Up 19%].

Marketability

Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 27, 2022

In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just starting to see could be explained by COVID and supply chain issues, prudence on the part of policy makers required that it be taken as a long term threat and dealt with quickly. in the NY Fed survey. in the NY Fed survey.

Risk Premium

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 5, 2023

As part of that obsession, since September 2008, I have estimated an equity risk premium for the S&P 500 at the start of each month, and not only used that premium, when valuing companies during that month, but shared my estimate on my webpage and on social media.

Risk Premium

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

I will follow up by looking at the mechanics that connect stock prices to inflation, and examine why the damage from higher inflation can vary across companies and sectors. The first is the dividends you receive, while you hold stocks, a cash flow stream that provides a measure of stability to investors who seek it. Stocks: The What?

Equity

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2024

While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of the losses from 2022. Stocks ended the year well, with November and December both delivering strong up movements, and while this left investors feeling good about the year, it was a rocky year.

Risk Premium

Musings on Markets

MAY 20, 2022

In general, higher and more volatile inflation has negative effects on all financial assets, from stocks to corporate bonds to treasury bonds, and neutral to positive effects on gold, collectibles and real assets. I then examine how equities have performed in the less than five months of 2022, where inflation has returned to the front pages.

Price to Book

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

At the start of the year, the consensus of market experts was that this would be a difficult year for markets, given the macro worries about inflation and an impending recession, and adding in the fear of the Fed raising rates to this mix made bullishness a rare commodity on Wall Street.

Marketability

Reynolds Holding

SEPTEMBER 29, 2024

The Treasury Department and the IRS have released long-awaited proposed regulations (the “Proposed Regulations”) on the 15% corporate minimum tax on the book income of certain large corporations (the “CAMT”), more than two years after the CAMT was created as part of the Inflation Reduction Act. [1]

Treasury

Brian DeChesare

JANUARY 3, 2024

My portfolio did “OK” (up 10% for the year), but it greatly underperformed the S&P 500 , which was up 24%. With better decisions, I could have been up 15 – 20% for the year and slightly above my levels from 2 years ago. Gold did well (up around 13%), but I had 10% or less in it the whole time. Treasuries.

Marketability

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

In this post, I offer an alternative, albeit a more complicated, metric that I believe offers not only a more comprehensive measure of pricing, but also operates as a barometer of the ups and downs in the market.

Risk Premium

ThomsonReuters

NOVEMBER 10, 2020

Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service issued the final regulations regarding the election to exclude high-tax Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) from a U.S. These rules include not only the TCJA GILTI, but also the FDII and BEAT calculations as well as the legacy Subpart F, Foreign Dividends, and U.S.

Dividends

Reynolds Holding

JUNE 20, 2024

market structure, where Treasuries, options, and mutual funds already largely settle in one day. market structure, where Treasuries, options, and mutual funds already largely settle in one day. For institutional investors, it will free up liquidity that might otherwise be trapped for two days. Last month, the U.S.

Treasury

Global Finance

MAY 8, 2024

This was primarily based on revenue growth, which registered a heady 30% rise, allowing the bank to distribute its highest full-year dividend since 2008. The NIM at Japan’s three largest banks hit 56 bps, the highest since the BOJ started its negative interest rate regime in 2012. billion after-tax profit versus $8.3 billion in 2022.

Banking

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.

Risk Premium

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.

Risk Premium

Reynolds Holding

APRIL 11, 2022

In addition, implementing “side-by-side” programs may be possible whereby a Rule 10b5-1 plan operates alongside a discretionary plan, allowing the company to take advantage of the ability to purchase during blackout periods provided by Rule 10b5-1 without giving up discretion over purchases during open window periods under the discretionary plan.

Banking

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

To start the year, I returned to a ritual that I have practiced for thirty years, and that is to take a look at not just market changes over the last year, but also to get measures of the financial standing and practices of companies around the world. Happy New Year, and I hope that 2022 brings you good tidings! Sometimes, less is more!

Risk Premium

Musings on Markets

MAY 11, 2021

In the weeks since, the administration has come up with its follow-up proposal, this one funded by increases in individual taxes, primarily on the wealthy. It is for this reason that some countries, like the UK and Australia, allow investors to claim a tax credit, for corporate taxes paid, on dividend income.

Dividends

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.

Equity

Musings on Markets

MAY 3, 2025

I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. Equities: Storm Clouds gather (and dissipate)!

Marketability