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The Dividend Discount Model (DDM): The Black Sheep of Valuation?

Brian DeChesare

When I started offering financial modeling training , I never expected to get questions about a methodology like the Dividend Discount Model (DDM). Otherwise, the written version follows: Why Use a Dividend Discount Model? If you sum up these numbers, you can see whether the company is valued appropriately.

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Data Update 2 for 2022: US Stocks kept winning in 2021, but…

Musings on Markets

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021).

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Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation!

Musings on Markets

Third, by making investing a choice between good (higher returns) and bad (higher risk), a message is sent, perhaps unwittingly, that risk is something to be avoided or hedged. Don't overthink the discount rate : One of my contentions of discount rates is that they cannot become receptacles for all your hopes and fears.

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Convertible Arbitrage Hedge Funds: The Perfect Combination of Investment Banking and Sales & Trading?

Brian DeChesare

But before delving into the best candidates for these roles, typical trades, careers, and more, let’s start with the basic definitions: What is a Convertible Arbitrage Hedge Fund? If the stock price goes up or down by 10%, but the volatility stays the same, you might not earn or lose anything on the trade.

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In Search of a Steady State: Inflation, Interest Rates and Value

Musings on Markets

In most time periods, those recalibrations and resets tend to be small and in both directions, resulting in the ups and downs that pass for normal volatility. Clearly, we are not in one of those time periods, as markets approach bipolar territory, with big moves up and down.

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Data Update 1 for 2022: It is Moneyball Time!

Musings on Markets

To start the year, I returned to a ritual that I have practiced for thirty years, and that is to take a look at not just market changes over the last year, but also to get measures of the financial standing and practices of companies around the world. Happy New Year, and I hope that 2022 brings you good tidings! Sometimes, less is more!

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Tesla's Trillion Dollar Moment: A Valuation Revisit!

Musings on Markets

As I have valued Tesla over the years, I have come to the realization that it is the most 'uncar-like" automobile company in the world, and its uniqueness shows up on two dimensions. Put simply, the company has been able to scale up more quickly, while reinvesting less in capacity, than any other automobile company.