Musings on Markets

MAY 20, 2022

Historical Data: 1930-2019 To see how this framework works in practice, let's start by looking at the performance of US stocks, across the decades, and look at the returns on stocks, broadly categorized based on market capitalization and price to book ratios.

Price to Book 96

Price to Book Dividends Beta Equity 96

Musings on Markets

MAY 7, 2023

While differentiating between good and bad banks can be straightforward, it does not follow that buying good banks and selling bad banks is a good investment strategy, since its success depends entirely on what the market is incorporating into stock prices. Note the differences between the bank FCFE and bank dividend discount models.

Banking 63

Banking Price to Book Dividends Book Value 63

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In this post, I will begin with a historical assessment of stock returns in the recent past, then move on to evaluate the returns that investors can expect to make, given how they are priced at the start of 2022, and end with a do-it-yourself valuation of the index right now. The year that was.

Risk Premium 80

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 80

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

I spent the first week of 2021 in the same way that I have spent the first week of every year since 1995, collecting data on publicly traded companies and analyzing how they navigated the cross currents of the prior year, both in operating and market value terms.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

I am not a market prognosticator for a simple reason. I am just not good at it, and the first six months of 2023 illustrate why market timing is often the impossible dream, something that every investor aspires to be successful at, but very few succeed on a consistent basis.

Marketability 95

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 95

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

Counter made-up numbers : It remains true that people (analysts, market experts, politicians) often make assertions based upon either incomplete or flawed data, or no data at all. For instance, is it true, as some assert, that inflation was high last year because companies raised prices to increase profits? Price to Book 3.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends EBITDA Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 4, 2023

The History The Adani Group, founded by Gautam Adani, started life as a commodity trading partnership business in Gujarat, and listed on stock markets in 1994, as Adani Exports, with a large chunk of its revenues coming from its operation of a local port in Mundra, with a subsequent entry into the edible oil business.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Market Capitalization Marketability Equity 100