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The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor!

Musings on Markets

If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. That said, I don't blame you, if are confused not only about how I estimate this premium, but what it measures.

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Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data

Musings on Markets

In corporate finance and investing, which are areas that I work in, I find myself doing double takes as I listen to politicians, market experts and economists making statements about company and market behavior that are fairy tales, and data is often my weapon for discerning the truth. Beta & Risk 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2.

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Corporate Fraud and the Consequences of Securities Class Action Litigation

Harvard Corporate Governance

Related research from the Program on Corporate Governance includes Rethinking Basic (discussed on the Forum here ) by Lucian Bebchuk and Allen Ferrell; and Price Impact, Materiality, and Halliburton II (discussed on the Forum here ) by Allen Ferrell and Andrew H. This post is based on their recent paper.

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Data Update 6 for 2025: From Macro to Micro - The Hurdle Rate Question!

Musings on Markets

In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. A few years ago, I wrote a paper for practitioners on the cost of capital , where I described the cost of capital as the Swiss Army knife of finance, because of its many uses.

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Data Update 4 for 2022: Risk = Danger + Opportunity!

Musings on Markets

In this post, I will start with a working definition of riskt that we can get some degree of agreement about, and then look at multiple measures of risk, both at the company and country level. In closing, I will talk about some of the more dangerous delusions that undercut good risk taking. What is risk?

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Data Update 1 for 2024: The data speaks, but what does it say?

Musings on Markets

I have also developed a practice in the last decade of spending much of January exploring what the data tells us, and does not tell us, about the investing, financing and dividend choices that companies made during the most recent year. Beta & Risk 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2. Financing Flows 5. Debt Details 1.

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In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets

In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the rate on that investment becomes the base on which you build, to get to expected returns on risky assets and investments. What is a risk free investment? Why does the risk-free rate matter?