Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The first is that I do not have a macro focus, and my interests in macro variables occur only in the context of corporate finance or valuation issues. In the same dataset where I compute historical equity risk premiums, I report historical returns on corporate bonds in two ratings classes (Moody’s Aaa and Baa ratings).

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

After the rating downgrade, my mailbox was inundated with questions of what this action meant for investing, in general, and for corporate finance and valuation practice, in particular, and this post is my attempt to answer them all with one post. What is a risk free investment? Why does the risk-free rate matter?

Risk-free Rate 80

Risk-free Rate Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 80

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2022

The other is the dangerous notion that measuring risk is the same as managing that risk and, in some cases, the even more insane view that it removes that risk. In corporate finance, this takes the form of a hurdle rate , a minimum acceptable return on an investment, for it to be funded.

Risk Premium 67

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 67

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

An Optimizing Tool In my second and third data posts for this year, I chronicled the effects of rising interest rates and risk premiums on costs of equity and capital. In computing the latter, I used the current debt ratios for firms, but made no attempt to evaluate whether these mixes were "right" or not.

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

Check rules of thumb : Investing and corporate finance are full of rules of thumb, many of long standing. When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (risk premiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage. Debt breakdown 2.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends EBITDA Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

In my corporate finance class, I describe all decisions that companies make as falling into one of three buckets – investing decisions, financing decision and dividend decisions. Equity Risk Premiums 2. Financing Flows 5. Dividends and Potential Dividends (FCFE) 1. Buybacks 2. Return on (invested) capital 2.

Dividends 98

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2024

In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.

Equity 79

Equity Book Value Start-ups Corporate Finance 79

Musings on Markets

MAY 11, 2021

With stocks, I compute this pre-personal tax return at the start of every month, using the current level of index and expected cash flows to back out an internal rate of return; this is the basis for the implied equity risk premium. It is one more reason that blindly using historical risk premiums can lead to static and strange values.

Dividends 52

Dividends Start-ups Risk Premium Treasury 52