Musings on Markets

MAY 7, 2023

I also used the banking framework to argue that good banks have stickier deposits, with a higher precent of these deposits being non-interest bearing, that they invest in loans and investment securities on which they earn interest rates that cover and exceed the default risk in these investments. All Equity, All the time!

Banking 63

Banking Price to Book Dividends Book Value 63

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

While we have increasingly given central banks primacy in discussions of interest rates, it remains my view that markets set rates, and while central banks can nudge market expectations, they cannot alter them. Connecting this linkage to the discussion of US inflation in the prior sections, here are the takeaways.

Risk-free Rate 84

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 84

Equilest

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

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Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Dividends Enterprise Value Terminal Value 52

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The second and more powerful factor is that the reason that a central bank is able to signal to markets, only if it has credibility, since the signal is more about what the Fed sees, using data that only it might have, about inflation and real growth in the future.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

Slicing the data based on sector yields the following: Against, there are no surprises, with energy being the only sector to post positive returns and with consumer discretionary and technology generating the most negative returns.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

Consider, for instance, an investor who picks stocks based upon price to book ratios, who finds a stock trading at a price to book ratio of 1.5. The first is that I do not have a macro focus, and my interests in macro variables occur only in the context of corporate finance or valuation issues.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

That does not surprise me, since I have never bought into the “Fed did it” theme, and have written multiple posts about why it is inflation and economic growth that drive interest rates, not central banks. Financials, handicapped by the bank runs at SVB and First Republic, have been flat for the year, as has been real estate.

Marketability 95

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 95