Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 4, 2023

The Markets in the Third Quarter Coming off a year of rising rates in 2022, interest rates have continued to command center stage in 2023. At the start of October, the ten-year and thirty-year rates were both approaching 15-year highs, with the 10-year treasury at 4.59% and the 30-year treasury rate at 4.73%.

Marketability 123

Marketability Start-ups Risk Premium Treasury 123

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

The US treasury market, considered by some still as a safe haven, was anything but safe or a haven, especially at the long maturities, as long term rates soared, with inflation (not the Fed) being the key driver. That is good advice in most years, but 2022 was not one of those years.

Treasury 97

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Equity 97

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

If, on the other hand, investors are risk neutral, the price of risk will be zero, and investors will buy risky business, stocks and other investments, and settle for the risk free rate as the expected return.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Equity Dividends 52

ThomsonReuters

MAY 6, 2021

Discounted cash flow approaches are also utilized within other functions of an organization, such as treasury, budgeting, financial planning and analysis, and tax planning. The Codification often provides guidance on how to select a discount rate for a particular area of accounting. Understanding the Calculation and the Output.

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Intangible Assets 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 24, 2024

Government Bond/Bill Rates in 2023 I will start by looking at government bond rates across the world, with the emphasis on US treasuries, which suffered their worst year in history in 2022, down close to 20% for the year, as interest rates surged. The Fed Effect: Where's the beef? The Fed Effect: Where's the beef?

Treasury 52

Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

Interest rates : To understand the link between expected inflation and interest rates, consider the Fisher equation, where a nominal riskfree interest rate (which is what treasury bond rates) can be broken down into expected inflation and expected real interest rate components.

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Valutico

OCTOBER 20, 2022

Rf = Risk-free Rate. Rm – Rf) = Equity Market Risk Premium. Cp = Cost of Equity Premium. Risk free rate (can use 10y Treasury). The details of how the CAPM works is beyond the scope of this article but in short, the formula is as follows: Ce = Rf + B x (Rm – Rf) + Cp.

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Value Weighted Average Cost of Capital Net Present Value 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021).

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

Equity Risk across Countries Default risk measures how much risk investors are exposed to, when investing in bonds issued by a government, but when you own a business, or the equity in that business, your risk exposure is not just magnified, but also broader.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first has been the steep rise in treasury rates in the last twelve weeks, as investors reassess expected economic growth over the rest of the year and worry about inflation. Coming in 2020, the ten-year T.Bond rate at 1.92% was already close to historic lows. Riskfree rate will rise. for 2021 and inflation of 2.2%

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Risk Premiums : You cannot make informed financial decisions, without having measures of the price of risk in markets, and I report my estimates for these values for both debt and equity markets. I extend my equity risk premium approach to cover other countries, using sovereign default spreads as my starting point, at this link.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

The hopeful note was that the Fed would lower the Fed Funds rate during the course of the year, triggering (at least in the minds of Fed watchers) lower interest rates across the yield curve, Clearly, the market not only fought through those concerns, but did so in the face of rising treasury rates, especially at the long end of the spectrum.

Equity 129

Equity Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 129

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2025

In this post, I will begin by looking at movements in treasury rates, across maturities, during 2024, and the resultant shifts in yield curves. I will follow up by examining changes in corporate bond rates, across the default ratings spectrum, trying to get a measure of how the price of risk in bond markets changed during 2024.

Banking 71

Banking Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 71

Equidam

APRIL 22, 2025

10] , [23] , [2] Discount Rate: The rate used to discount future cash flows is typically the cost of equity, calculated via the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): Cost of Equity = Risk-Free Rate + Beta * Market Risk Premium. [23] 23] Risk-Free Rate: Tied to government bond yields (e.g.,

Discounted Cash Flow 64

Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Value Marketability EBITDA 64

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

I am no expert on exchange rates, but learning to deal with different currencies in valuation is a prerequisite to valuing companies. Thus, if the US treasury bond rate (4.5%) is the riskfree rate in US dollars, and the expected inflation rates in US dollars and Brazilian reals are 2.5%

Risk Premium 69

Risk Premium Start-ups Enterprise Value Equity 69