Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2024

While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of the losses from 2022. Stocks ended the year well, with November and December both delivering strong up movements, and while this left investors feeling good about the year, it was a rocky year.

Risk Premium

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

I will follow up by looking at the mechanics that connect stock prices to inflation, and examine why the damage from higher inflation can vary across companies and sectors. The Year in Review At the start of 2022, the S&P 500 was at 4766.18, up from 3756.07 at the start of that year. Stocks: The What?

Equity

Musings on Markets

MAY 20, 2022

In general, higher and more volatile inflation has negative effects on all financial assets, from stocks to corporate bonds to treasury bonds, and neutral to positive effects on gold, collectibles and real assets. I then examine how equities have performed in the less than five months of 2022, where inflation has returned to the front pages.

Price to Book

Musings on Markets

MAY 5, 2023

The overarching questions for us all are whether this crisis will spread to the rest of the economy and market, as it did in 2008, and how banking as a business, at least in the US, will be reshaped by this crisis, and while I am more a dabbler than an expert in banking, I am going to try answering those questions.

Banking

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.

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Reynolds Holding

APRIL 4, 2022

Seeing these ads reminded me that, in the lead-up to the financial crisis, subprime lender AmeriQuest advertised in the Super Bowl. The dot-com bubble burst, though, created significant tremors in our markets. As in other start-up fields, many projects likely could fail. It went defunct in 2007.

Marketability

Global Finance

MAY 8, 2024

The NIM at Japan’s three largest banks hit 56 bps, the highest since the BOJ started its negative interest rate regime in 2012. The group’s market capitalization in 2023 was at a 17-year high, valuing the enterprise at around the same level in dollar terms as Goldman Sachs. increase in fee income. billion manat (about $5.2

Banking

Musings on Markets

DECEMBER 2, 2020

On Monday, November 16, Airbnb filed it’s preliminary prospectus with the SEC, starting the clock on its long awaited initial public offering. In this section, I will start with a brief history of the company, move on to reviewing its financials leading into 2020, and then look at how it has performed in 2020.

Start-ups

Reynolds Holding

OCTOBER 21, 2024

The markets have moved to overwhelmingly trade electronically, with transaction volume in listed equities tripling in the last 17 years. [3] 3] A large and growing portion of the market is being transacted off-exchange in the dark markets. equity markets are critical to American families saving for their future.

Equity

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

The Lead In To understand the market effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we need to start with an assessment of the two countries, and their places in the global political, economic and market landscape, leading in.

Start-ups

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.

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Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

To start the year, I returned to a ritual that I have practiced for thirty years, and that is to take a look at not just market changes over the last year, but also to get measures of the financial standing and practices of companies around the world. Happy New Year, and I hope that 2022 brings you good tidings!

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Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. The first has been the steep rise in treasury rates in the last twelve weeks, as investors reassess expected economic growth over the rest of the year and worry about inflation. for 2021 and inflation of 2.2%

Equity

Reynolds Holding

JULY 25, 2023

This sort of global governance consensus, concerted follow-up, and concrete action plan does not exist for any other prospective component of ESG and is unlikely to exist because governments differ on social values and differ on trade-offs of social rights for economic development. Treasury Secretary Yellin has publicly signaled formal U.S.

Equity

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.

Equity

Musings on Markets

MAY 3, 2025

I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. Equities: Storm Clouds gather (and dissipate)!

Marketability

Equidam

APRIL 22, 2025

10] Initial Public Offerings (IPOs): While the ultimate pricing of an IPO is determined by public market demand and conditions, pre-IPO valuations set by late-stage private rounds guide expectations and internal planning. [11] Its components, derived from the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), move with broader economic trends. [23]

Discounted Cash Flow

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

It is for this reason that I chose to compute returns differently, using the following constructs: I included all publicly traded stocks in each market, or at least those with a market capitalization available for them. I converted all of the market capitalizations into US dollars , just to make them comparable.

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Reynolds Holding

MAY 20, 2025

Four weeks ago today, I was sworn in by Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent in the Oval Office with President Donald Trump; my family was by my side. The SEC will remain vigilant in our important role to ensure that investors have confidence to participate in the markets. Thank you for inviting me to testify today. [1]

Technology

Reynolds Holding

JUNE 3, 2025

On April 22, I was sworn in by Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent in the Oval Office with President Donald Trump; my family was by my side. The SEC will remain vigilant in our important role to ensure that investors have confidence to participate in the markets. Thank you for inviting me to testify today. [1]

Technology