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Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data

Musings on Markets

Thus, as you peruse my historical data on implied equity risk premiums or PE ratios for the S&P 500 over time, you may be tempted to compute averages and use them in your investment strategies, or use my industry averages for debt ratios and pricing multiples as the target for every company in the peer group, but you should hold back.

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Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy!

Musings on Markets

Breaking down just US equities, by sector, we can see the damage across sectors: The technology sector lost the most in value last week, both in dollar terms, shedding almost $1.8 In percentage terms, energy stocks have lost the most in value, with market capitalizations dropping by 14.2%, dragged down by declining oil prices.

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Market Resilience or Investors In Denial? A Mid-year Assessment for 2023!

Musings on Markets

In my second data update post from the start of this year , I looked at US equities in 2022, with the S&P 500 down almost 20% during the year and the NASDAQ, overweighted in technology, feeling even more pain, down about a third, during the year. trillion below their values from the start of 2022. that was lost last year.

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Data Update 6 for 2025: From Macro to Micro - The Hurdle Rate Question!

Musings on Markets

In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. The second set of inputs are prices of risk, in both the equity and debt markets, with the former measured by equity risk premiums , and the latter by default spreads.

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Data Update 2 for 2024: A Stock Comeback - Winning the Expectations Game!

Musings on Markets

That positive result notwithstanding, the recovery was uneven, with a big chunk of the increase in market capitalization coming from seven companies (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, NVidia and Tesla) and wide divergences in performance across stocks, in performance. increase in market capitalization.

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Tesla's Trillion Dollar Moment: A Valuation Revisit!

Musings on Markets

I would be lying if I said that I have had clarity about Tesla's story over the last decade, because it has so many tangents, distractions and shifts along the way, flirting with narratives about being a battery company, an energy company and a technology company. In sum, the company's market cap has risen from $2.8 for mature markets.

Start-ups 101
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Data Update 1 for 2021: A (Data) Look Back at a Most Forgettable Year (2020)!

Musings on Markets

By focusing so much attention on a small subset of companies, you risk developing tunnel vision, especially when doing peer group comparisons. While some of the companies in this data trace their existence back decades, there is a healthy proportion of younger companies, many in emerging markets and new industries.