Musings on Markets
JANUARY 27, 2022
Put simply, no central bank, no matter how powerful, can force market interest rates down, if inflation expectations stay low, or up, if investor are anticipating high inflation. For those who track the slope of the yield curve, and I am not one of those who believes that it has much predictive power, it was a confusing year.
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 19, 2022
In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021).
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Musings on Markets
MARCH 25, 2021
The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. The first has been the steep rise in treasury rates in the last twelve weeks, as investors reassess expected economic growth over the rest of the year and worry about inflation. for 2021 and inflation of 2.2%
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 21, 2023
No matter how you slice it, there is no denying that 2022 was the worst year for US equity investors since 2008, and the magnitude of the damage is even more staggering, if you consider it in market value terms. trillion in market capitalization, but for balance, it is also worth noting that US equities are still holding on to a gain of $6.9
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 8, 2022
Regional Breakdown My data sample for 2022 includes every publicly traded firm that is traded anywhere in the world, with a market capitalization that exceeds zero. I extend my equity risk premium approach to cover other countries, using sovereign default spreads as my starting point, at this link.
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