Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

I am not a market prognosticator for a simple reason. I am just not good at it, and the first six months of 2023 illustrate why market timing is often the impossible dream, something that every investor aspires to be successful at, but very few succeed on a consistent basis.

Marketability

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

By the end of 2021, it was clear that this bout of inflation was not as transient a phenomenon as some had made it out to be, and the big question leading in 2022, for investors and markets, is how inflation will play out during the year, and beyond, and the consequences for stocks, bonds and currencies.

Risk-free Rate

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2024

That positive result notwithstanding, the recovery was uneven, with a big chunk of the increase in market capitalization coming from seven companies (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, NVidia and Tesla) and wide divergences in performance across stocks, in performance. increase in market capitalization.

Risk Premium

Reynolds Holding

JULY 10, 2022

In standard public equity securities, even the most naïve investor is protected, first, by the market price – you pay only for what you get – and, second, by the comfort that nothing else is required of an individual investor to realize the full value of the security. securities markets – not SPACs. SPACs disable both protections.

Treasury

Musings on Markets

MAY 20, 2022

In general, higher and more volatile inflation has negative effects on all financial assets, from stocks to corporate bonds to treasury bonds, and neutral to positive effects on gold, collectibles and real assets. The former is short hand for the small cap premium and the latter is the proxy for the value factor in returns.

Price to Book

Reynolds Holding

APRIL 4, 2022

Today, you’ve invited me to talk about the roughly $2 trillion crypto markets. The dot-com bubble burst, though, created significant tremors in our markets. There’s no reason to treat the crypto market differently just because different technology is used. has the greatest capital markets because investors have faith in them.

Marketability

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even in the long term.

Equity

Musings on Markets

MAY 5, 2023

The overarching questions for us all are whether this crisis will spread to the rest of the economy and market, as it did in 2008, and how banking as a business, at least in the US, will be reshaped by this crisis, and while I am more a dabbler than an expert in banking, I am going to try answering those questions.

Banking

Mckinsey and Company

JULY 9, 2025

At the same time, the industry is facing an uncertain macroeconomic environment and geopolitical tensions, leading to lower levels of net flows and higher market volatility. Low-margin asset classes have revenue margins of less than 30 basis points and include active fixed income, passives, and money markets. basis points).

Alpha

Reynolds Holding

OCTOBER 21, 2024

What GameStop put on display was how much has changed—in technology and business models—since 2005 when we last comprehensively updated our equity market rules. The markets have moved to overwhelmingly trade electronically, with transaction volume in listed equities tripling in the last 17 years. [3] 6] The $55 trillion U.S.

Equity

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

I spent the first week of 2021 in the same way that I have spent the first week of every year since 1995, collecting data on publicly traded companies and analyzing how they navigated the cross currents of the prior year, both in operating and market value terms.

Risk Premium

Reynolds Holding

SEPTEMBER 1, 2022

The a2 Milk shareholder class action alleges the Company with breaches of the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 and Fair Trading Act 1986. Treasury Wine Estates. Treasury Wine Estates is one of the world’s largest wine companies, listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX: TWE) and as an ADR in the US (OTC: TSRYY).

Treasury

Benzinga

MARCH 16, 2023

Under the terms of the Agreement, Trillium and Pacton will merge on an at-market basis, with each common shareholder of Pacton (each, a "Pacton Shareholder") entitled to receive 1.275 common shares of Trillium (each whole such common share, a "Trillium Share") in exchange for each Pacton common share held (each, a "Pacton Share").

Treasury

Reynolds Holding

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

On November 17, 2022, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) issued a special alert to FINRA members concerning the heightened threat of fraud in small capitalization initial public offerings (“IPOs”). Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (“FinCEN”); and. broker-dealers to the U.S.

Compliance

Musings on Markets

DECEMBER 2, 2020

In this post, I will argue that there are good reasons for Airbnb's IPO timing, and make my first attempt at valuing this latest entrant into public markets. By the start of 2020, Airbnb had already become one of the largest players in its market of vacation and travel rentals, a sign of success, but also a crimp on future growth.

Start-ups

Global Finance

MAY 8, 2024

The Citigroup acquisition bore immediate fruit in the e-payments line, with 25% growth in customers in ASEAN, 26% growth in transaction value to S$129 billion and the capture of 40% market share in Malaysia via the DuitNow e-payment corridor and 60% in Thailand via PromptPay. CCB invested 4.9 increase in fee income.

Banking

Benzinga

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

I have no doubt that the union of Marathon's experienced team and well advanced Valentine Project based in Canada, with Calibre's production assets, robust treasury, free cash flow, flawless track record in execution and high impact exploration opportunities will unlock significant value for the shareholders of both companies.

Equity

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

As the world's attention is focused on the war in the Ukraine, it is the human toll, in death and injury, that should get our immediate attention, and you may find a focus on economics and markets to be callous. The increase in default spreads was not restricted to foreign markets, as fear also pushed up spreads in the corporate bond market.

Start-ups

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.

Risk Premium

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

To start the year, I returned to a ritual that I have practiced for thirty years, and that is to take a look at not just market changes over the last year, but also to get measures of the financial standing and practices of companies around the world. Happy New Year, and I hope that 2022 brings you good tidings!

Risk Premium

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. The first has been the steep rise in treasury rates in the last twelve weeks, as investors reassess expected economic growth over the rest of the year and worry about inflation.

Equity

Reynolds Holding

JUNE 8, 2025

As of May 31, 2025, fiat-backed stablecoins overwhelmingly dominate the market, with Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) leading significantly with market caps exceeding $150 billion and $60 billion, respectively. regulatory framework for stablecoins, seeking to resolve long-standing issues concerning oversight and market integrity.

Treasury

Reynolds Holding

JULY 25, 2023

Treasury Secretary Yellin has publicly signaled formal U.S. and the EU in the extent to which politically active citizens see a direction connection between stock market returns and their personal retirement security. The current schedule calls for a “final” rule by October 2023, and we can anticipate contentious litigation.

Equity

Musings on Markets

MAY 3, 2025

I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. of the overall market capitalization of all US companies at the start of 2025, lost $2.34

Marketability

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.

Equity

Equidam

APRIL 22, 2025

S ection 3: What Influence Do Markets Have on Startup Valuation? Valuing startups relies heavily on assumptions about future performance, interpretations of market trends, and the specific perspectives and risk appetites of the involved parties. [3] Venture Capital (VC) Financing: This is perhaps the most common context.

Discounted Cash Flow

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

The Indian and Chinese markets cooled off in 2024, posting single digit gains in price appreciation. The Indian and Chinese markets cooled off in 2024, posting single digit gains in price appreciation. I converted all of the market capitalizations into US dollars , just to make them comparable.

Risk Premium

Reynolds Holding

MAY 20, 2025

Four weeks ago today, I was sworn in by Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent in the Oval Office with President Donald Trump; my family was by my side. The SECs three-part mission was enunciated by Congress in the Exchange Act: protecting investors; facilitating capital formation; and maintaining fair, orderly, and efficient markets.

Technology

Reynolds Holding

FEBRUARY 24, 2025

It is not clear how market capitalization would be calculated in this contexte.g., This is relevant because leading crypto market structure bills would propose to classify many digital assets as digital commodities that are subject to CFTC, rather than SEC, jurisdiction. Transition provisions. International reciprocity.

Banking

Reynolds Holding

JUNE 3, 2025

On April 22, I was sworn in by Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent in the Oval Office with President Donald Trump; my family was by my side. The SECs three-part mission was enunciated by Congress in the Exchange Act: protecting investors; facilitating capital formation; and maintaining fair, orderly, and efficient markets.

Technology