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The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor!

Musings on Markets

If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. That said, I don't blame you, if are confused not only about how I estimate this premium, but what it measures.

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Sovereign Ratings, Default Risk and Markets: The Moody's Downgrade Aftermath!

Musings on Markets

Since the ratings downgrade happened after close of trading on a Friday, there was concern that markets would wake up on the following Monday (May 19) to a wave of selling, and while that did not materialize, the rest of the week was a down week for both stocks and US treasury bonds, especially at the longest end of the maturity spectrum.

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Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data

Musings on Markets

In corporate finance and investing, which are areas that I work in, I find myself doing double takes as I listen to politicians, market experts and economists making statements about company and market behavior that are fairy tales, and data is often my weapon for discerning the truth. Beta & Risk 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2.

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Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities!

Musings on Markets

That said, when investors buy equities, it would be both irrational and illogical to settle for expected returns that are less than what you can earn on risk free or guaranteed investments, though behavioral finance suggests that both irrationality and illogic are persistent human traits.

Equity 95
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Data Update 6 for 2025: From Macro to Micro - The Hurdle Rate Question!

Musings on Markets

In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. A few years ago, I wrote a paper for practitioners on the cost of capital , where I described the cost of capital as the Swiss Army knife of finance, because of its many uses.

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Data Update 3 for 2023: Inflation and Interest Rates

Musings on Markets

The US treasury market, considered by some still as a safe haven, was anything but safe or a haven, especially at the long maturities, as long term rates soared, with inflation (not the Fed) being the key driver. That is good advice in most years, but 2022 was not one of those years.

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In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets

In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the rate on that investment becomes the base on which you build, to get to expected returns on risky assets and investments. What is a risk free investment? For an investment to be risk free then, it has to meet two conditions.