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Country Risk 2025: The Story behind the Numbers!

Musings on Markets

At the start of July, I updated my estimates of equity risk premiums for countries, in an semiannual ritual that goes back almost three decades. Third, ratings agencies are often slow to react to events on the ground, and ratings changes, when they do occur, often lag changes in default risk.

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Return on Equity, Earnings Yield and Market Efficiency: Back to Basics!

Musings on Markets

While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by two events. The Market Launch Assume now that the owners of both businesses (A and B) list their businesses in the market, disclosing what they expect to generate as net income in perpetuity.

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Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy!

Musings on Markets

Coming after a few days where the market seemed to have found its bearings (at least partially), it was clear from the initial reactions across the world that the breadth and the magnitude of the tariffs had caught most by surprise, and that a market markdown was coming.

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Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities!

Musings on Markets

It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even in the long term. at the start of that year.

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Data Update 4 for 2022: Risk = Danger + Opportunity!

Musings on Markets

In the first few weeks of 2022, we have had repeated reminders from the market that risk never goes away for good, even in the most buoyant markets, and that when it returns, investors still seem to be surprised that it is there.

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In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets

Expected returns for Risky Investments : The risk-free rate becomes the base on which you build to estimate expected returns on all other investments. For instance, if you read my last post on equity risk premiums , I described the equity risk premium as the additional return you would demand, over and above the risk free rate.

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Data Update 3 for 2023: Inflation and Interest Rates

Musings on Markets

If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. The rise in rates transmitted to corporate bond market rates, with a concurrent rise in default spreads exacerbating the damage to investors.