Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2024

Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. Breaking equities down by sub-region, and looking across the globe, I computed the change in aggregate market capitalization, by region: While US stocks accounted for about $9.5

Risk Premium 81

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Dividends 81

Equidam

APRIL 26, 2025

Critiquing Unsuitable Methods for High-Growth Startups Several traditional or overly simplistic methods fail to adequately capture the unique characteristics of technology startups. butcher, barber) where assets are tangible and customer acquisition straightforward, it breaks down for technology startups.

Discounted Cash Flow 59

Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Value Book Value Beta 59

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2024

In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.

Equity 82

Equity Book Value Start-ups Corporate Finance 82

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (risk premiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage. I do report on a few market-wide data items especially on risk premiums for both equity and debt. Cost of Equity 1.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups EBITDA 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

I would be lying if I said that I have had clarity about Tesla's story over the last decade, because it has so many tangents, distractions and shifts along the way, flirting with narratives about being a battery company, an energy company and a technology company. for mature markets. What’s your story?

Start-ups 101

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 101

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

Some of that variation can be attributed to different mixes of businesses in different regions, since unit economics will result in higher gross margins for technology companies and commodity companies, in years when commodity prices are high, and lower gross margins for heavy manufacturing and retail businesses.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 26, 2023

In its early years, Tesla was dependent on equity issuances for funding growth investments, and its liberal use of options to reward management (and especially Elon Musk) opened it up to criticism. The Market : The US equity market in January 2023 looks very different from the market at the start of 2022. per share in 2022.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Marketability Risk Premium Equity 99

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

Looking at US equities, the S&P 500 is up about 11% and the NASDAQ about 5%, from start of the year levels, and the underperformance of the latter has led to a wave of stories about whether this is start of the long awaited comeback of value stocks, after a decade of lagging growth stocks.

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55

Appraisal Rights

JUNE 5, 2017

The various problems facing the company led the court to embrace the respondents’ theory that SWS would continue to face an uphill climb given its relatively small size, which prevented it from scaling its substantial regulatory, technological, and back-office costs. Hilltop’s Influence on the Sale Process Rendered Merger Price Unreliable.

Beta 40

Beta Risk Premium Capital Structure Discounted Cash Flow 40

Equilest

JUNE 10, 2023

Changes in tax regulations, technology advancements, and shifts in customer preferences can impact the future prospects and growth potential of the business. Technology and Infrastructure In today's digital age, the technology and infrastructure employed by a tax preparation business can greatly influence its value.

Business Valuation 40

Business Valuation Fair Market Value Marketability Technology 40

Musings on Markets

JULY 22, 2021

Uber's ownership in Zomato is a result of Zomato's acquisition of Uber Eats India, where Uber received a share of Zomato's equity in exchange. That said, reinvestment takes a different form for companies like Zomato, with investments in technology and in acquisitions, driving future growth.

Marketability 99

Marketability Start-ups Equity Price to Book 99

Equilest

JUNE 13, 2023

Equipment, Technology, and Infrastructure The quality and condition of equipment, technology, and infrastructure directly influence the value of a disaster restoration business. Stay updated on the latest advancements, changes in regulations, and emerging technologies that can impact the business's value.

Business Valuation 40

Business Valuation Asset-based Approach Appraisal Intangible Assets 40

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2021

In my last post , I described the wild ride that the price of risk took in 2020, with equity risk premiums and default spreads initially sky rocketing, as the virus led to global economic shutdowns, and then just as abruptly dropping back to pre-crisis levels over the course of the year.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Marketability Equity Treasury 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 12, 2021

The last decade, with it influx of user based companies and technology platforms forced me to think seriously about how to value a user, subscriber or rider and extrapolate from there to company value. Discount rates in intrinsic valaution have to change to reflect current market conditions, and can be expected to change over time.

Corporate Finance 52

Corporate Finance Start-ups Finance Marketability 52

Appraiser Newsroom

JUNE 4, 2024

Kevin holds an MBA in finance from Georgia State University and a Bachelors in Chemical Engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology. Amanda holds a PhD, dual master’s degrees from Stanford University and dual bachelor’s degrees from the California Institute of Technology.

Business Valuation 59

Business Valuation Intangible Assets Appraisal Finance 59

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

If equity markets surprised us with their resilience in 2020, not just weathering a pandemic for the ages, but prospering in its midst, US equity markets, in particular, managed to find light even in the darkest news stories, and continued their rise through 2021. The year that was.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2024

In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023 , driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound.

Risk Premium 121

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 121

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

In this section, I will begin by looking at the bond market effects and then move on to equities and other asset classes, starting by looking at the localized reaction (for Ukranian and Russian securities) and then the global ripple effects. As Russian equities have imploded, the ripple effects again are being felt across the globe.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. Those rates stayed low through the rest of 2020, even as equity markets recovered and corporate bond spreads fell back to pre-crisis levels. to close to zero, and the ten-year T.Bond rate declining to close to 0.70%.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Risk Premiums : You cannot make informed financial decisions, without having measures of the price of risk in markets, and I report my estimates for these values for both debt and equity markets.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

To fund the business, you can either use borrowed money (debt) or owner's funds (equity), and while both are sources of capital, they represent different claims on the business. Even government-owned businesses fall under its umbrella, with the key difference being that equity is provided by the taxpayers.

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 3, 2025

I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. Equities: Storm Clouds gather (and dissipate)! trillion that they lost in the first week of the month.

Marketability 95

Marketability Start-ups Treasury Risk Premium 95

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

The Debt Trade off As a prelude to examining the debt and equity tradeoff, it is best to first nail down what distinguishes the two sources of capital. To me, the key distinction between debt and equity lies in the nature of the claims that its holders have on cash flows from the business.

Equity 77

Equity EBITDA Risk Premium Gross Debt 77

Musings on Markets

APRIL 20, 2025

For the market, it is often built on papers (or books) that look at the historical data on what equity markets have delivered as returns over long periods, relative to what you would have made investing elsewhere. Contrarian Investing: The Psychological Tests! In the abstract, it is easy to understand the appeal of contrarian investing.

Start-ups 136

Start-ups Price to Book Marketability Equity 136

Musings on Markets

MARCH 15, 2025

Thus, my estimates of equity risk premiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies. That said, to value companies today, I have no choice but to bring in the economics and politics of the world that these companies inhabit.

Start-ups 132

Start-ups Risk Premium Marketability Equity 132

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2025

The AI story, before DeepSeek The AI story has been building for a while, reflecting the convergence of two forces in technology - more computing power, often in smaller and smaller packages, and the accumulation of data, on technology platforms and elsewhere. What is it that makes the DeepSeek story so compelling?

Start-ups 134

Start-ups Marketability Technology Risk Premium 134

Equidam

APRIL 22, 2025

2] Startups typically lack significant historical financial data, often operate with negative profits initially, rely heavily on private equity or venture capital rather than traditional bank loans, and face a much higher risk of failure. [1] This de-risks the execution aspect of the future plan. 1] [4] [6] [14] [18].

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups 52

Equidam

APRIL 22, 2025

It determines the price per share, dictating how much equity founders concede in exchange for the capital raised. [3] 3] , [7] , [6] It sets a benchmark against which future fundraising rounds will be measured and helps investors assess whether the potential upside justifies the significant risks associated with early-stage ventures. [8]

Discounted Cash Flow 64

Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Value Marketability EBITDA 64