Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2024

In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023 , driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound.

Risk Premium 93

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 93

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

Some of that variation can be attributed to different mixes of businesses in different regions, since unit economics will result in higher gross margins for technology companies and commodity companies, in years when commodity prices are high, and lower gross margins for heavy manufacturing and retail businesses.

Equity 52

Equity Start-ups Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Risk Premiums : You cannot make informed financial decisions, without having measures of the price of risk in markets, and I report my estimates for these values for both debt and equity markets. I extend my equity risk premium approach to cover other countries, using sovereign default spreads as my starting point, at this link.

Risk Premium 91

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 91

ThomsonReuters

JUNE 15, 2021

Use of Special purpose acquisition (SPAC) vehicles have spiked over the past year because private equity and venture capital firms have excess cash they need to put to work, accounting practitioners said mid-June. These standards require companies to assess whether the warrants should be equity or liability classified.

Risk-free Rate 64

Risk-free Rate Equity Start-ups Book Value 64

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

I would be lying if I said that I have had clarity about Tesla's story over the last decade, because it has so many tangents, distractions and shifts along the way, flirting with narratives about being a battery company, an energy company and a technology company. for mature markets. What’s your story?

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2024

In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.

Equity 79

Equity Book Value Start-ups Corporate Finance 79

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 12, 2021

The last decade, with it influx of user based companies and technology platforms forced me to think seriously about how to value a user, subscriber or rider and extrapolate from there to company value. Discount rates in intrinsic valaution have to change to reflect current market conditions, and can be expected to change over time.

Corporate Finance 52

Corporate Finance Start-ups Finance Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2022

Download sector average betas ( US , Global ) Note the preponderance of financial service firms on the lowest risk ranks, but note also that almost all of them are substantial borrowers, and end up with levered risk levels close to average (one) or above. Technology and cyclical companies dominate raw highest risk rankings.

Risk Premium 67

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 67

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

Looking at US equities, the S&P 500 is up about 11% and the NASDAQ about 5%, from start of the year levels, and the underperformance of the latter has led to a wave of stories about whether this is start of the long awaited comeback of value stocks, after a decade of lagging growth stocks.

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 26, 2023

In its early years, Tesla was dependent on equity issuances for funding growth investments, and its liberal use of options to reward management (and especially Elon Musk) opened it up to criticism. The Market : The US equity market in January 2023 looks very different from the market at the start of 2022. per share in 2022.

Start-ups 80

Start-ups Marketability Risk Premium Equity 80