Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

I am just not good at it, and the first six months of 2023 illustrate why market timing is often the impossible dream, something that every investor aspires to be successful at, but very few succeed on a consistent basis. Markets, as is their wont, live to surprise, and the first six months of 2023 has wrong-footed the experts (again).

Marketability 98

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 98

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

A few years ago, I wrote a paper for practitioners on the cost of capital , where I described the cost of capital as the Swiss Army knife of finance, because of its many uses. Much of the confusion in applying cost of capital comes from not recognizing that it morphs, depending on where it is being used.

Risk Premium 74

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 74

Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 5, 2024

That drop of more than $200 billion in market capitalization in response to what looked like good news, at least on the surface, puzzled market observers, though, as is their wont, they had found a reason by day end. on June 18, 2024, and a low of $92.06, on August 5, before ending at $125.61

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Marketability Start-ups Discounted Cash Flow Market Capitalization 136

Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 12, 2023

The effect of impact investing in the inclusionary and exclusionary paths is through the stock price , with the buying (selling) in inclusionary (exclusionary) investing pushing stock prices up (down), which, in turn, decreases (increases) the costs of equity and capital at these firms. in the 1998-2010 time period to 5.95

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Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

Investors, used to a decade of better-than-expected earnings and rising stock prices at these companies, have been blindsided by unexpected bad news in earnings reports, and have knocked down the market capitalization of these companies by hundreds of billions of dollars in the last few weeks.

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Start-ups Market Capitalization Marketability Dividends 106

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

The automobile business has been in trouble for quite a while, struggling with anemic revenue growth in the aggregate, and abysmal profit margins, with even the very best in the group struggling to earn returns that match, let alone beat, their costs of capital. In sum, the company's market cap has risen from $2.8

Start-ups 101

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 101

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2022

In this post, I will look at corporate profitability, in all its different dimensions, and how companies across the globe, and across industries, measured up in the most recent years. Not surprisingly, then, the net effect of growth will depend on how much is reinvested back, relative to what the company can harvest as future growth.

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Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. That is not true!

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups EBITDA 52

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

In my first two posts on Facebook, I noted that its most recent earnings report, and the market reaction to it, offers an opportunity for us to talk about bigger issues. Why stories matter in a numbers world If you are a numbers valuation, you start with some advantages.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Marketability Market Capitalization Technology 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Global Finance

MAY 8, 2024

This was primarily based on revenue growth, which registered a heady 30% rise, allowing the bank to distribute its highest full-year dividend since 2008. The NIM at Japan’s three largest banks hit 56 bps, the highest since the BOJ started its negative interest rate regime in 2012. billion after-tax profit versus $8.3 billion in 2022.

Banking 52

Banking Dividends Start-ups Finance 52

Equilest

FEBRUARY 5, 2023

The DLVR occurs because investors are willing to pay a lower price for a stock with limited decision-making power, even if it has the same potential for dividends and capital appreciation as a stock with full voting rights. Schedule a demo now and start exploring the power of business valuation software for free !

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Business Valuation Dividends Start-ups Marketability 40

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024

Second, they have all been in the news in the last few weeks, with Starbucks getting a new CEO, Walgreens announcing that they will be shutting down hundreds of their stores and Intel coming up in the Nvidia conversation, often as a contrast.

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Start-ups Marketability Market Capitalization Equity 135

Musings on Markets

MAY 7, 2023

In this post, I will begin by looking at how to value banks and follow up with an examination of investor views of banking have changed, by looking at pricing, before examining divergences in how banks are priced in the market today. Note the differences between the bank FCFE and bank dividend discount models.

Banking 86

Banking Price to Book Dividends Book Value 86

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

To start the year, I returned to a ritual that I have practiced for thirty years, and that is to take a look at not just market changes over the last year, but also to get measures of the financial standing and practices of companies around the world. Happy New Year, and I hope that 2022 brings you good tidings!

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

APRIL 20, 2021

The Biden Administration's $ 2 trillion infrastructure plan, announced with fanfare a few weeks ago, has opened up a debate about not only what comprises infrastructure, but also about how to pay for it. Not surprisingly. It thus weights bigger companies more than smaller companies. billion in accrual taxes and $15.98

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Debt Financing Finance Equity 52

Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 18, 2024

In a court filing on October 9, 2024, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) let it be known that it was considering a break-up of Alphabet, with the addendum that it would also be pushing for the company to share the data it collects across its multiple platforms with competitors. In oil, it was John D.

Start-ups 77

Start-ups Market Capitalization Marketability Technology 77

Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 25, 2022

Note that we start with net income , earnings that is already after interest expenses and taxes, and that we consider reinvestment in both short term assets (change in non-cash working capital) as well in long term assets (as the difference between capital expenditures and depreciation).

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Dividends EBITDA Equity Start-ups 108

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 4, 2023

The Lead In As noted in the introductory paragraph, I start from a position of ignorance about the Adani Group, and it thus made sense to fill in that gap. First, they are infrastructure businesses , requiring large up-front investments and having long gestation periods, with regulatory and government oversight.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Market Capitalization Marketability Equity 100

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.

Equity 129

Equity Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 129

Musings on Markets

APRIL 20, 2025

"Buying the dip" falls into a broad group of investment strategies that can be classified as "contrarian", where investors act in contrast to what the rest of the market is doing at the time, buying (selling) when the vast majority are selling (buying) , and it has been around through all of market history.

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Start-ups Price to Book Marketability Equity 136

Musings on Markets

MAY 3, 2025

I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. Equities: Storm Clouds gather (and dissipate)!

Marketability 95

Marketability Start-ups Treasury Risk Premium 95

Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 28, 2024

That was the thought that came to mind, as I was writing about the US government's plans to break up big tech, and chronicling how much the big tech companies have struggled, trying to enter new businesses, notwithstanding the capital and brainpower that they have at their disposal.

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Start-ups Alpha Equity Marketability 70

Musings on Markets

MARCH 15, 2025

I will start with a couple of confessions. When I started my teaching journey at the University of California at Berkeley in 1984, business education was dollar-centric, with business schools around the world using textbooks and cases written with US data and starring US companies.

Start-ups 132

Start-ups Risk Premium Marketability Equity 132

Harvard Corporate Governance

JUNE 15, 2024

In addition, Rule 14a-8 only allows for a supporting statement of up to 500 words. go back) 4 For example, the shareholder’s pre-approval was required before the Board issued stock, declared a dividend, incurred debt, appointed or removed specified officers, entered into a merger, or approved the annual budget. (go go back)

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Global Finance

MAY 2, 2025

Indeed, stablecoin market capitalization reached $230 billion in mid-March, up 56% from a year earlier; analysts at Bernstein predict market cap could exceed $500 billion by yearend. Consider only the trillions of dollars locked up in banks today to facilitate international transactions, he argues.

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Banking Treasury Finance Start-ups 84