Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 20, 2024

The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee finally got around to “cutting rates”, and doing so by more than expected. Since the Fed Funds rate is specified as a range, there are periods where the effective Fed Funds rate may go up or down, albeit within small bounds.

Banking 126

Banking Treasury Start-ups Marketability 126

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

That said, when investors buy equities, it would be both irrational and illogical to settle for expected returns that are less than what you can earn on risk free or guaranteed investments, though behavioral finance suggests that both irrationality and illogic are persistent human traits. Stocks: The What Next?

Equity 95

Equity Risk Premium Start-ups Dividends 95

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

The first of the is as companies scale up, there will be a point where they will hit a growth wall, and their growth will converge on the growth rate for the economy. Lowering revenue growth to 15% in 2023 and raising it to 33% in 2024 will deliver almost the same value for the company, as what I get with my smoothed-out values.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Marketability 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2024

In short, if you don't like betas and have disdain for modern portfolio theory, your choice should not be to abandon risk measurement all together, but to come up with an alternative risk measure that is more in sync with your view of the world. Data Update 2 for 2024: A Stock Comeback - Winning the Expectations Game!

Risk Premium 122

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 122

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.

Equity 129

Equity Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 129

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2025

It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more evidence on the limited power that central banks have to alter the trajectory of market interest rates. We started 2024 with the consensus wisdom that rates would drop during the year, driven by expectations of rate cuts from the Fed.

Banking 71

Banking Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 71

Equidam

APRIL 22, 2025

10] , [23] , [2] Discount Rate: The rate used to discount future cash flows is typically the cost of equity, calculated via the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): Cost of Equity = Risk-Free Rate + Beta * Market Risk Premium. [23] 23] Risk-Free Rate: Tied to government bond yields (e.g.,

Discounted Cash Flow 64

Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Value Marketability EBITDA 64

Equidam

APRIL 22, 2025

Discount Rates / Risk Premiums: The discount rate used in DCF analysis (often the WACC) incorporates elements sensitive to market conditions. [21] 21] [22] [24] [27] The cost of equity component includes the market risk premium the excess return investors expect for investing in the broader market over a risk-free rate.

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

In this post, I will expand my analysis of data in 2024, which has a been mostly US-centric in the first four of my posts, and use that data to take you on my version of the Disney ride, but on this trip, I have no choice but to face the world as is, with all of the chaos it includes, with tariffs and trade wars looming.

Risk Premium 69

Risk Premium Start-ups Enterprise Value Equity 69