2024 Equity Risk-free Rate 
Musings on Markets
JULY 31, 2025
At the start of July, I updated my estimates of equity risk premiums for countries, in an semiannual ritual that goes back almost three decades. To estimate the cost of equity for an investment in a risky country. As with some of my other data updates, I have mixed feelings about publishing these numbers.
Equidam
JUNE 30, 2025
Down rounds hit 22% of all VC deals in Q2 2024—down from a peak of 33% in Q1 2024, but still the highest sustained level since the 2008 financial crisis. This guide reveals the data-driven strategies successful founders use to navigate down rounds, protect their equity, and position for future success.
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Musings on Markets
JUNE 2, 2025
As recently as the early 1980s, only about thirteen governments, mostly in developed and mature markets, had ratings, with most of them commanding the highest level (Aaa). The ratings agencies provide tables that list defaults by rating that back the proposition that sovereign ratings and default are highly correlated.
Equidam
JULY 16, 2025
Out of 100 companies that applied to angel groups in 2024, only 2 reached an investor’s portfolio. Working with Dealum, the leading deal flow platform used by angel networks worldwide, they analyzed over 12,000 funding applications submitted between 2022-2024. overall funding rate (during the late-stage funding boom) 2023 : 4.3%
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 21, 2023
In this post, I will begin by chronicling the damage done to equities during 2022, before putting the year in historical context, and then examine how developments during the year have affected expectations for the future. Actual Returns Your returns on equities come in one of two forms. Stocks: The What?
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 5, 2024
Beta & Risk 1. Return on Equity 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2. Ratings & Spreads 2. Tax rates 4. Costs of equity & capital 4. Valuation Pricing Growth & Reinvestment Profitability Risk Multiple s 1. Valuation Pricing Growth & Reinvestment Profitability Risk Multiple s 1.
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 31, 2024
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.
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