Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.

Risk Premium 80

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 80

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

Note, though, that while sovereign CDS spreads increased almost 51% between January 1, 2022 and March 16, 2022, in these countries, the overall riskiness of the region remains low, the average spread at 1.30%.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

By the end of 2021, it was clear that this bout of inflation was not as transient a phenomenon as some had made it out to be, and the big question leading in 2022, for investors and markets, is how inflation will play out during the year, and beyond, and the consequences for stocks, bonds and currencies.

Risk-free Rate 84

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 84

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

In my second data update post from the start of this year , I looked at US equities in 2022, with the S&P 500 down almost 20% during the year and the NASDAQ, overweighted in technology, feeling even more pain, down about a third, during the year. That pessimism was not restricted to market outlooks.

Marketability 95

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 95

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

These assertions may very well be true, but cheap and expensive, at least in pricing terms, is relative, and looking at the data can help you detect rules of thumb that work from those that do not. I do report on a few market-wide data items especially on risk premiums for both equity and debt. Price to Book 3.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends EBITDA Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JULY 22, 2021

I will assume a partial bounce back to 22% of GOV , starting in 2022, but the presence of Amazon Food will prevent a return to higher values in the future. The second is the cost of capital, a number that most valuation classes and books (including mine) belabor to the point of diminishing returns.

Marketability 86

Marketability Start-ups Equity Price to Book 86