Musings on Markets

JULY 27, 2022

On July 21, 2021, I valued Zomato just ahead of its initial public offering at about ? 169 per share in late 2021. per share, and the mood and momentum that worked in its favor for most of 2021 had turned against the company. grow at the cost of equity), yielding about ?46 15,000 in March 2021 to ? 41 per share.

Risk Premium 81

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Marketability 81

Musings on Markets

MAY 6, 2022

It is precisely because we have been spoiled by a decade of low and stable inflation that the inflation numbers in 2021 and 2022 came as such a surprise to economists, investors and even the Fed. As the inflation bogeyman returns, the worries of what may need to happen to the economy to bring inflation back under control have also mounted.

Risk Premium 92

Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups Equity 92

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2021

In my last post , I described the wild ride that the price of risk took in 2020, with equity risk premiums and default spreads initially sky rocketing, as the virus led to global economic shutdowns, and then just as abruptly dropping back to pre-crisis levels over the course of the year.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Marketability Equity Treasury 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

In 2022, we needed that reminder more than ever before, especially after markets came roaring back from the COVID drop in 2020 and 2021. We invest in equities expecting to earn more than we can make on risk free or guaranteed investments, but the risk in equities is that actual returns can deviate from expectations.

Equity 70

Equity Risk Premium Start-ups Dividends 70

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. Historical Context In my earlier post, I noted that US equity market performance in 2022 made it the seventh worst year in stock market history, if you go back to 1928.

Treasury 74

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Equity 74

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

With equities, the metric that has been in use the longest is the PE ratio, modified in recent years to the CAPE, where earnings are normalized (by averaging over time) and sometimes adjusted for inflation. Note that nothing that I have said so far is premised on modern portfolio theory, or any academic view of risk premiums.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Equity Dividends 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Those measures took a beating in 2020, as COVID decimated the earnings of companies in many sectors and regions of the world, and while 2021 was a return to some degree of normalcy, there is still damage that has to be worked through.

Risk Premium 91

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 91

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

The first is to see how the increase in inflation in 2021 and 2021 has played out in profitability for companies, since inflation can increase profits for some firms, and lower them for others. It was in attempting to estimate the latter that I computed the costs of equity in my second post and costs of capital in my third.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

Inflation numbers have been coming in high now, for more than a year, but for much of the early part of 2021, bankers, investors and politicians seemed to be either in denial or casually dismissive of its potential for damage.

Risk-free Rate 84

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 84

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

Russia was also a leading exporter of these commodities, with a disproportionately large share of its oil and gas production going to Europe; in 2021, Russian gas accounted to 45% of EU gas imports. As Russian equities have imploded, the ripple effects again are being felt across the globe.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2024

Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. Breaking equities down by sub-region, and looking across the globe, I computed the change in aggregate market capitalization, by region: While US stocks accounted for about $9.5

Risk Premium 77

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Treasury 77

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

In 2021, looking at the company, I feel more convinced than I was a few years that it is, at its core, an automobile company, and while it will continue to derive revenues from batteries and perhaps even software, its pathway to becoming a trillion dollar market cap company still runs through the "car company" story.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 99

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

In my second data update post from the start of this year , I looked at US equities in 2022, with the S&P 500 down almost 20% during the year and the NASDAQ, overweighted in technology, feeling even more pain, down about a third, during the year. trillion below their values from the start of 2022. that was lost last year.

Marketability 95

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 95

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2022

Relative Risk Measures Before we embark on how to measure relative risk, where there can be substantial disagreement, let me start with a statement on which there should be agreement. By the same token, Embraer and TCS are global firms that happen to be incorporated in Brazil and India, respectively.

Risk Premium 67

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 67

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

Expected returns for Risky Investments : The risk-free rate becomes the base on which you build to estimate expected returns on all other investments. For instance, if you read my last post on equity risk premiums , I described the equity risk premium as the additional return you would demand, over and above the risk free rate.

Risk-free Rate 80

Risk-free Rate Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 80

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

Beta & Risk 1. Return on Equity 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2. Costs of equity & capital 4. Valuation Pricing Growth & Reinvestment Profitability Risk Multiple s 1. Valuation Pricing Growth & Reinvestment Profitability Risk Multiple s 1. Costs of equity & capital 1.

Dividends 98

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 12, 2021

pm (New York time) All three classes start on February 1, 2021 and end on May 10, 2021. The class times for the coming semester are below: Corporate Finance: Mondays & Wednesdays, 12.30 pm (New York time) Valuation (MBA): Mondays & Wednesdays, 2.00 pm (New York time) Valuation (Undergraduate): Mondays & Wednesdays, 3.30

Corporate Finance 52

Corporate Finance Start-ups Finance Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (risk premiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage. I do report on a few market-wide data items especially on risk premiums for both equity and debt. Cost of Equity 1.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends EBITDA Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2024

In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.

Equity 79

Equity Book Value Start-ups Corporate Finance 79

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 26, 2023

My last valuation of Tesla was in November 2021, towards its market peak, and given its steep fall from grace, in conjunction with Elon Musk's Twitter experiment, it is time for a revisit. In this section, I will begin by looking at the evolution of my Tesla value from 2013 to 2021, and then present my updated valuation of the company.

Start-ups 80

Start-ups Marketability Risk Premium Equity 80

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

As we approach the mid point of 2021, financial markets, for the most part, have had a good year so far. Source Data The two estimates move together much of the time, but the consumer expectations are consistently higher, and at the end of April 2021, the consumer survey was forecasting inflation of 3.2%, about 1.1%

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55

Musings on Markets

JULY 22, 2021

Zomato, an Indian online food-delivery company, was opened up to public market investors on July 14, 2021, and its market debut is being watched for clues by a number of other online ventures in India, waiting in the wings to go public. The service was initiated in 2017 and it had 1.5

Marketability 86

Marketability Start-ups Equity Price to Book 86

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

A few of you did take issue with the fact that the growth rate that I used for the first five years dropped from 35%, in my November 2021 valuation , to 24%, in my most recent one. There is not much room to maneuver on either number, since half of all US companies have costs of capital between 7.3% It was the reason that I argued at a $1.2

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Marketability 99

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

Just to illustrate the contradictions that can result, PRS gives Libya a country risk score that is higher (safer) than the scores it gives United States or France, putting them at odds with most other services that rank Libya among the riskiest countries in the world.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 11, 2021

With stocks, I compute this pre-personal tax return at the start of every month, using the current level of index and expected cash flows to back out an internal rate of return; this is the basis for the implied equity risk premium.

Dividends 52

Dividends Start-ups Risk Premium Treasury 52

Musings on Markets

MARCH 28, 2022

billion invested in Russian equities on February 23, 2022 , almost all of which was wiped out during the next few weeks. Risk Surge and Economic Viability : In my last post, I noted the surge in Russia's default spread and country risk premium, making it one of the riskiest parts of the world to operate in, for any business.

Start-ups 113

Start-ups Alpha Marketability Risk Premium 113