Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

The Hurdle Rate - Intuition and Uses You don't need to complete a corporate finance or valuation class to encounter hurdle rates in practice, usually taking the form of costs of equity and capital, but taking a finance class both deepens the acquaintance and ruins it.

Risk Premium

Brian DeChesare

JULY 23, 2025

Titles and groups are quite standard in IB but vary more in commercial banking (CB), and entry-level roles include everything from underwriters to credit officers to treasury officers/analysts and relationship managers; most people start as underwriters. GPA, and maybe a previous accounting or credit internship.

Banking

Global Finance

AUGUST 5, 2025

Global Finance: How did fiscal and monetary policy interact during your time at the US Department of the Treasury? Christopher Hodge: There was a high degree of coordination between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, but decisions about where on the yield curve to issue debt are solely within the Treasury’s purview.

Treasury

Musings on Markets

MARCH 15, 2025

I will start with a couple of confessions. Thus, my estimates of equity risk premiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies.

Start-ups

Musings on Markets

APRIL 7, 2025

Not surprisingly, the markets opened down on Thursday and spent the next two days in that mode, with US equity indices declining almost 10% by close of trading on Friday. US equities had the biggest decline in dollar value terms, losing $5.3 trillion in value last week, a 9.24% decline in value from the Friday close on March 28, 2025.

Marketability

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 5, 2023

If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. How, you may ask, can equity risk premiums be that divergent, and does that imply that anything goes?

Risk Premium

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

In this post, I will begin by chronicling the damage done to equities during 2022, before putting the year in historical context, and then examine how developments during the year have affected expectations for the future. Actual Returns Your returns on equities come in one of two forms. at the start of that year.

Equity

Reynolds Holding

MAY 11, 2023

3] The century of progress that began here in Chicago has lived up to FDR’s vision. 5] After all we achieved to reform the swaps markets, Scott O’Malia—your CEO and a former fellow CFTC Commissioner—has asked me to return for yet another lively Chicago discussion, this time about our work in the $24 trillion Treasury markets.

Treasury

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. As a result, treasury bond investors faced one of their worst years in history, losing close to a fifth of their principal, as bonds were repriced.

Treasury

IVSC

SEPTEMBER 12, 2024

He leads a team of quants, focusing on the valuations of complex securities and instruments issued by start-up companies to venture capital and private equity investors. Kwan Eng is a Chartered Valuer and Appraiser, and a Certified International Treasury Management professional.

Intangible Assets

Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 4, 2023

We started the year with significant uncertainty about whether the surge in inflation seen in 2022 would persist as well as about whether the economy was headed into a recession. The NASDAQ also gave back gains in the third quarter, but is up 27.27% for the year, but those gaudy numbers obscure a sobering reality. billion.

Marketability

Musings on Markets

MAY 6, 2022

In most time periods, those recalibrations and resets tend to be small and in both directions, resulting in the ups and downs that pass for normal volatility. Clearly, we are not in one of those time periods, as markets approach bipolar territory, with big moves up and down.

Risk Premium

Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 27, 2022

In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just starting to see could be explained by COVID and supply chain issues, prudence on the part of policy makers required that it be taken as a long term threat and dealt with quickly. in the NY Fed survey. in the NY Fed survey.

Risk Premium

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

At the start of the year, the consensus of market experts was that this would be a difficult year for markets, given the macro worries about inflation and an impending recession, and adding in the fear of the Fed raising rates to this mix made bullishness a rare commodity on Wall Street.

Marketability

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

Inflation: Measurement and Determinants As the inflation debate was heating up in the middle of last year, I wrote a comprehensive post on how inflation is measured, what causes it and how it affects returns on different asset classes. Rather than repeat much of that post, let me summarize my key points.

Risk-free Rate

Financial Times M&A

JUNE 5, 2025

Nintendo set to sell out Switch 2 console at global launch Silicon Valley’s abundance of hype over abundance Markets Sections Markets Home Alphaville Markets Data Crypto Capital Markets Commodities Currencies Equities Monetary Policy Radar Wealth Management Moral Money ETF Hub Fund Management Trading Most Read Tesla’s market value suffers biggest one-day (..)

Start-ups

Financial Times M&A

JULY 7, 2025

On-the-job learning upended by AI and hybrid work Revolut yet to receive key credit licence from UK regulators Tech Sections Tech Home Artificial intelligence Semiconductors Cyber Security Social Media Most Read CoreWeave strikes $9bn deal to buy rival Core Scientific America’s police-industrial complex has a meme stock Samsung profits take big hit (..)

Start-ups

Brian DeChesare

JANUARY 4, 2023

Just look at the handy chart the Financial Times put together to see the horrifically bad numbers: In January 2022, everything seemed quite frothy, with mega-deals happening left and right and crypto and equity prices still at high levels. Treasuries: 19% [Up 19%]. Real Estate (Equity Funds + Owned Properties): 15% [Up 5%].

Marketability

Musings on Markets

JULY 13, 2022

It has been my practice for the last two decades to take a detailed look at how risk varies across countries, once at the start of the year and once mid-year. Country Risk: Equity Risk For equity investors, the price of risk is captured by the equity risk premium, and equity risk premiums will vary across countries.

Risk Premium

Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 20, 2024

The place to start to dispel the “Fed sets rates” myth is with an understanding of the Fed Funds rate, an overnight intra-bank borrowing rate is one that most of us will never ever encounter in our lives.

Banking

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2024

Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of the losses from 2022. increase in market capitalization.

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Brian DeChesare

FEBRUARY 22, 2023

Sell-Side Definition: In the finance industry, “buy-side firms” raise money from institutions and wealthy individuals and invest on their behalf, profiting from management fees, performance fees, or both; “sell-side firms” earn money from commissions charged to facilitate deals and to sell, market, and trade equity, debt, and other securities.

Finance

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

I took this estimation process for granted until 2008, when during that crisis, I woke up to the realization that no matter what the text books say about risk-free investments, there are times when finding an investment with a guaranteed return can become an impossible task. and the reverse will occur, when risk-free rates drop.

Risk-free Rate

Brian DeChesare

JUNE 15, 2022

If you look online, you’ll find many threads, articles, and blog posts saying that back office (BO) and middle office (MO) jobs are “the worst” and that if you end up there, your career is over. First, note that these terms apply only to investment banks and related finance firms (private equity firms, hedge funds, etc.).

Banking

Brian DeChesare

MARCH 13, 2023

Banks’ lending activities are constrained by: Regulatory Capital – All banks must maintain a certain amount of common shareholders’ equity to absorb unexpected losses on loans and other assets. These are marked to market value and do affect the bank’s common equity and regulatory capital ratios, such as its CET 1 Ratio.

Banking

Brian DeChesare

FEBRUARY 28, 2024

While everyone seems to know about equity research and trading stocks, fixed income research gets far less attention. Equity Research vs. Fixed Income Research Common Myths What Do You Do as a Fixed Income Research Analyst or Associate? Each role has common analytical elements, but the specifics and deliverables differ (e.g.,

Equity

Musings on Markets

MAY 5, 2023

The Bank Regulators If you are wondering where bank regulators enter the business model, it is worth remembering that banks predate regulators, and for centuries, were self regulated, i.e., were responsible for ensuring that they had enough equity capital to cover unexpected losses.

Banking

Musings on Markets

MAY 20, 2022

In my last post , I discussed how inflation's return has changed the calculus for investors, looking at how inflation affects returns on different asset classes, and tracing out the consequences for equity values, in the aggregate.

Price to Book

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 24, 2024

In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery.

Treasury

Brian DeChesare

JANUARY 3, 2024

My portfolio did “OK” (up 10% for the year), but it greatly underperformed the S&P 500 , which was up 24%. With better decisions, I could have been up 15 – 20% for the year and slightly above my levels from 2 years ago. Gold did well (up around 13%), but I had 10% or less in it the whole time.

Marketability

Reynolds Holding

OCTOBER 21, 2024

What GameStop put on display was how much has changed—in technology and business models—since 2005 when we last comprehensively updated our equity market rules. The markets have moved to overwhelmingly trade electronically, with transaction volume in listed equities tripling in the last 17 years. [3] 6] The $55 trillion U.S.

Equity

Simply Treasury

NOVEMBER 2, 2020

How to best choose your IT treasury solution in a complex and competitive environment? The strategic and key role of treasury teams has increased steadily over last decade. At treasury level, the central technology is the calculation and processing power of Treasury Management Systems (i.e. Tech dependency of Treasury.

Treasury

Value Scope

JANUARY 13, 2021

This is often when litigation picks up. Oil and gas production is a supply chain that ends up in a place where the commodity is changed into something that is useful, like fuel, rubber, or natural gas that is dry and safe to burn in a power plant. Click to Download: Update on Oil & Gas Royalties Litigation-Key Valuation Issue s.

Fair Market Value

Brian DeChesare

SEPTEMBER 14, 2022

The commonality is that they can be useful side doors into the finance industry, especially if you got started late , earned lower grades , or did not complete enough internships : What is a “Credit Analyst”? Normal Company: It’s most common to move around to other areas in corporate finance, such as FP&A, Accounting, or Treasury.

Finance

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

Looking at US equities, the S&P 500 is up about 11% and the NASDAQ about 5%, from start of the year levels, and the underperformance of the latter has led to a wave of stories about whether this is start of the long awaited comeback of value stocks, after a decade of lagging growth stocks.

Treasury

Chris Mercer

MAY 19, 2023

Was it just the long-term Treasury Securities that everyone has talked about. The bank was “profitable” and attractive for those eight years, up to the time that they announced underlying asset quality problems. Assuming they started with $100 million in total assets, that represented an 18% CAGR over the period.

Banking

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

With equities, the metric that has been in use the longest is the PE ratio, modified in recent years to the CAPE, where earnings are normalized (by averaging over time) and sometimes adjusted for inflation.

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