Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (risk premiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage. Data universe : In my sample, I include all publicly traded firms with market capitalizations that exceed zero, traded anywhere in the world.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups EBITDA 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

Corporate Bonds: No Shortage of Risk Capital In my last post, I chronicled the movement in the equity risk premium, i.e. the price of risk in the equity market, during 2021, but the bond market has its own, and more measurable, price of risk in the form of corporate default spreads.

Risk-free Rate 99

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 99

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

The graph below contains Tesla's stock price, adjusted for stock splits, going back to 2010, and ending in November 2021: While the graph illustrates the surge in the stock price, the table embedded in the graph conveys the rise more vividly, by listing Tesla's market capitalization in millions of dollars. for mature markets.

Start-ups 101

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 101

Appraisal Rights

JUNE 5, 2017

In selecting the appropriate equity risk premium, the court observed that whether to use supply-side or historical ERP should be determined on a case-by-case basis.

Beta 40

Beta Risk Premium Capital Structure Discounted Cash Flow 40

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

Finally, my starting cost of capital of 10.15% reflects the reality that the riskfree rate and equity risk premiums have risen over 2022, and my ending number of 9% is an indication that I expect Tesla to become less risky over time. It was the reason that I argued at a $1.2

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Marketability 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

If equity markets surprised us with their resilience in 2020, not just weathering a pandemic for the ages, but prospering in its midst, US equity markets, in particular, managed to find light even in the darkest news stories, and continued their rise through 2021. The year that was.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

The Market Reaction As the rhetoric of war has heated up in the last few months, markets were wary about the possibility of war, but as Russian troops have advanced into the Ukraine, that wariness has turned to sell off across markets. As Russian equities have imploded, the ripple effects again are being felt across the globe.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Regional Breakdown My data sample for 2022 includes every publicly traded firm that is traded anywhere in the world, with a market capitalization that exceeds zero. For debt markets, it takes the form of default spreads, and I report the latest estimates of these corporate bond spreads at this link.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. The arrival of the COVID in February 2020, and the ensuing market meltdown, causing treasury rates to plummet across the spectrum, with three-month T.bill rates dropping from 1.5% Riskfree rate will rise.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Minuses : As in the last approach, you still have to estimate a probability that a catastrophe will occur, and in addition, and there can be challenges in estimating the value of a business, if the company fails in the face of catastrophic risk. 4 & 5 Uninsurable Risk. Note that these higher discount rates apply in both scenarios.

Risk Premium 78

Risk Premium Start-ups Beta Marketability 78

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

To fund the business, you can either use borrowed money (debt) or owner's funds (equity), and while both are sources of capital, they represent different claims on the business. Even government-owned businesses fall under its umbrella, with the key difference being that equity is provided by the taxpayers.

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.

Equity 129

Equity Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 129

Musings on Markets

MAY 3, 2025

I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. Equities: Storm Clouds gather (and dissipate)!

Marketability 95

Marketability Start-ups Treasury Risk Premium 95

Musings on Markets

APRIL 20, 2025

For the market, it is often built on papers (or books) that look at the historical data on what equity markets have delivered as returns over long periods, relative to what you would have made investing elsewhere. Contrarian Investing: The Psychological Tests!

Start-ups 136

Start-ups Price to Book Marketability Equity 136

Musings on Markets

MARCH 15, 2025

Thus, my estimates of equity risk premiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies. That said, to value companies today, I have no choice but to bring in the economics and politics of the world that these companies inhabit.

Start-ups 132

Start-ups Risk Premium Marketability Equity 132

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2025

Since the companies involved in building the AI infrastructure are the ones that are most tangibly (and immediately) benefiting from the AI boom, they are also the companies that have seen the biggest boost in market cap, as the AI story heated up.

Start-ups 134

Start-ups Marketability Technology Risk Premium 134

Equidam

APRIL 22, 2025

Venture Capital (VC) Financing: This is perhaps the most common context. It determines the price per share, dictating how much equity founders concede in exchange for the capital raised. [3] Secondary Markets: Increasingly, founders, employees, and early investors seek liquidity before a traditional exit like an M&A or IPO.

Discounted Cash Flow 64

Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Value Marketability EBITDA 64

Reynolds Holding

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Effective and well-designed laws governing investment and financial markets are the single most important foundation for financial markets to allocate capital efficiently while providing optimal reassurance to investors and lenders. In the United States, the cost of capital is lower than elsewhere. 3] [link]. [4]

Systematic Risk 45

Systematic Risk Marketability Equity Risk Premium 45

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

It is for this reason that I chose to compute returns differently, using the following constructs: I included all publicly traded stocks in each market, or at least those with a market capitalization available for them. I converted all of the market capitalizations into US dollars , just to make them comparable.

Risk Premium 69

Risk Premium Start-ups Enterprise Value Equity 69