Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

While the universe of companies is diverse, with approximately half of all firms from emerging markets, it is more concentrated in market capitalization, with the US accounting for 40% of global market capitalization at the start of the year.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

The graph below contains Tesla's stock price, adjusted for stock splits, going back to 2010, and ending in November 2021: While the graph illustrates the surge in the stock price, the table embedded in the graph conveys the rise more vividly, by listing Tesla's market capitalization in millions of dollars. for mature markets.

Start-ups 101

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 101

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

To fill in the missing pieces, I redid the valuation picture, adding the revenue growth rate, by year: Download spreadsheet As you look at the sheet, it is worth emphasizing a few estimation details that you may have missed in my original post: First, the revenue growth rate , at least for me, is a means to an end, not an end in itself.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Marketability 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

I report a dataset containing annual returns on stocks, going back to 1928 , and to put 2021 in context, I looked at the historical returns on the index: Download historical returns on US stocks Looking at the 94 years in this dataset, the returns in 2021 would have ranked 20th on the list , good, but not exceptional.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

The overriding message in all of this data is that Russia/Ukraine war has unleashed fears in the bond market, and once unleashed that fear has pushed up worries about default and default risk premia across the board.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Regional Breakdown My data sample for 2022 includes every publicly traded firm that is traded anywhere in the world, with a market capitalization that exceeds zero. For debt markets, it takes the form of default spreads, and I report the latest estimates of these corporate bond spreads at this link.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

Risk premiums No effect or even a decrease. Risk premia may rise as inflation increases, because higher inflation is almost always more volatile than low inflation. Download data While the chart itself has too much noise to draw conclusions, the correlations that I have calculated provide more information.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

In this section, I will lay out a mechanism for evaluating the effects of borrowing on the cost of funding a business, i.e., the cost of capital, and talk about why firms may under or overshoot this optimal. In fact, at a zero percent tax rate, the optimal debt ratio, if you define it as the mix that minimizes cost of capital is zero.

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.

Equity 129

Equity Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 129

Musings on Markets

MAY 3, 2025

of the overall market capitalization of all US companies at the start of 2025, lost $2.34 trillion (about 13.19%) in market capitalization in the first quarter of 2025. Focusing just on US equities, technology companies, which accounted for 29.4% trillion that they lost in the first week of the month.

Marketability 95

Marketability Start-ups Treasury Risk Premium 95

Musings on Markets

APRIL 20, 2025

For the market, it is often built on papers (or books) that look at the historical data on what equity markets have delivered as returns over long periods, relative to what you would have made investing elsewhere. Contrarian Investing: The Psychological Tests!

Start-ups 136

Start-ups Price to Book Marketability Equity 136

Musings on Markets

MARCH 15, 2025

Thus, my estimates of equity risk premiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies. That said, to value companies today, I have no choice but to bring in the economics and politics of the world that these companies inhabit.

Start-ups 132

Start-ups Risk Premium Marketability Equity 132

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

It is for this reason that I chose to compute returns differently, using the following constructs: I included all publicly traded stocks in each market, or at least those with a market capitalization available for them. I converted all of the market capitalizations into US dollars , just to make them comparable.

Risk Premium 69

Risk Premium Start-ups Enterprise Value Equity 69