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Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation!

Musings on Markets

In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023 , driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. Analysts often try to bring company-specific components, i.e,

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Country Risk: A 2022 Mid-year Update!

Musings on Markets

It has been my practice for the last two decades to take a detailed look at how risk varies across countries, once at the start of the year and once mid-year. Country Risk: Default Risk and Ratings For investors, the most direct measures of country risk come from measures of their capacity to default on their borrowings.

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Data Update 4 for 2021: The Hurdle Rate Question!

Musings on Markets

In this post, I will start by looking at the role that hurdle rates play in running a business, with the consequences of setting them too high or too low, and then look at the fundamentals that should cause hurdle rates to vary across companies.

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Convertible Arbitrage Hedge Funds: The Perfect Combination of Investment Banking and Sales & Trading?

Brian DeChesare

Convertible bonds are hybrid instruments with elements of debt and equity, and some groups that trade convertible bonds also combine elements of S&T and IB. But before delving into the best candidates for these roles, typical trades, careers, and more, let’s start with the basic definitions: What is a Convertible Arbitrage Hedge Fund?

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The Dividend Discount Model (DDM): The Black Sheep of Valuation?

Brian DeChesare

When I started offering financial modeling training , I never expected to get questions about a methodology like the Dividend Discount Model (DDM). It can be useful for certain companies, such as power and utility firms and midstream (pipeline) operators in oil & gas … …but it’s also much harder to set up and use than a standard DCF.

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Data Update 4 for 2022: Risk = Danger + Opportunity!

Musings on Markets

Investors all talk about risk, but there seems to be little consensus on what it is, how it should be measured, and how it plays out in the short and long term. In closing, I will talk about some of the more dangerous delusions that undercut good risk taking. What is risk?

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Marking Time: A new year, a fresh semester and its class time!

Musings on Markets

I also start thinking about my passion, which is teaching, the spring semester to come, and the classes that I will be teaching, repeating a process that I have gone through every year since 1984, my first year as a teacher. Face up to uncertainty, rather than avoid or deny it : Uncertainty is a feature of investing/ business, not a bug.