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Fed up with Fed Talk? Fact-checking Central Banking Fairy Tales!

Musings on Markets

As a long-time skeptic about the Fed’s (or any Central Bank’s) capacity to alter much in markets or the economy, I decided now would be as good a time as any to confront some widely held beliefs about central banking powers, and counter them with data.

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Convertible Arbitrage Hedge Funds: The Perfect Combination of Investment Banking and Sales & Trading?

Brian DeChesare

Traditionally, if someone asked the “ sales & trading vs. investment banking ” question, the response was easy: “Do banking unless you really, really like trading and could not imagine doing anything else.”. The time to expiration or maturity is further away – because there’s more time for the stock price to go up.

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Data Update 3: Inflation and its Ripple Effects!

Musings on Markets

Inflation: Measurement and Determinants As the inflation debate was heating up in the middle of last year, I wrote a comprehensive post on how inflation is measured, what causes it and how it affects returns on different asset classes. Rather than repeat much of that post, let me summarize my key points.

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Data Update 2 for 2022: US Stocks kept winning in 2021, but…

Musings on Markets

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021).

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Country Risk: A 2022 Mid-year Update!

Musings on Markets

It has been my practice for the last two decades to take a detailed look at how risk varies across countries, once at the start of the year and once mid-year. Country Risk: Default Risk and Ratings For investors, the most direct measures of country risk come from measures of their capacity to default on their borrowings.

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Data Update 3 for 2023: Inflation and Interest Rates

Musings on Markets

The rise in rates transmitted to corporate bond market rates, with a concurrent rise in default spreads exacerbating the damage to investors. Download data US Treasury rates rose across all maturities, but more so at the short end of the term structure (3 months, 1 year and 2 year) than at the long end (10 year or 30 year).

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In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets

In fact, the standard practice that most analysts and investors follow to estimate the risk free rate is to use the government bond rate, with the only variants being whether they use a short term or a long term rate. where I looked at the possibility that we live in a world where nothing is truly risk free.