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Sovereign Ratings, Default Risk and Markets: The Moody's Downgrade Aftermath!

Musings on Markets

The first is that, over time, sovereign defaults, especially on foreign currency debt, have shifted from bank debt to sovereign bonds, with three times as many sovereign defaults on bonds than on bank loans in 2023. Sovereign default can make banking systems more fragil e.

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In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets

In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the rate on that investment becomes the base on which you build, to get to expected returns on risky assets and investments. What is a risk free investment? Why does the risk-free rate matter?

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Fed up with Fed Talk? Fact-checking Central Banking Fairy Tales!

Musings on Markets

As a long-time skeptic about the Fed’s (or any Central Bank’s) capacity to alter much in markets or the economy, I decided now would be as good a time as any to confront some widely held beliefs about central banking powers, and counter them with data.

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Convertible Arbitrage Hedge Funds: The Perfect Combination of Investment Banking and Sales & Trading?

Brian DeChesare

Traditionally, if someone asked the “ sales & trading vs. investment banking ” question, the response was easy: “Do banking unless you really, really like trading and could not imagine doing anything else.”. Convertibles do not create immediate dilution , unlike a traditional IPO or follow-on equity offering.

Banking 89
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Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities!

Musings on Markets

In this post, I will begin by chronicling the damage done to equities during 2022, before putting the year in historical context, and then examine how developments during the year have affected expectations for the future. Actual Returns Your returns on equities come in one of two forms. Stocks: The What?

Equity 95
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Country Risk: A 2022 Mid-year Update!

Musings on Markets

Country Risk: Equity Risk For equity investors, the price of risk is captured by the equity risk premium, and equity risk premiums will vary across countries. Please do not attach any political significance to my country groupings, or take them personally.

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Data Update 3: Inflation and its Ripple Effects!

Musings on Markets

Interest Rates and Inflation Inflation and interest rates are intertwined, and when their paths deviate, as they sometimes do, there is always a reckoning. Put simply, no central bank, no matter how powerful, can force market interest rates down, if inflation expectations stay low, or up, if investor are anticipating high inflation.