2025 Risk Premium Treasury 
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 10, 2025
It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and running, and I plan to use this post to describe my data sample, my processes for computing industry statistics and the links to finding them. Beta & Risk 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2. Corporate Governance & Descriptive 1.
Musings on Markets
JUNE 2, 2025
That left Moody's, the third of the major sovereign ratings agencies, as the only one that persisted with a Aaa (Moody's equivalent of AAA) for the US, but that changed on May 16, 2025, when it too downgraded the US from Aaa (negative) to Aa1 (stable). In addition to more countries being rated, the ratings themselves have become richer.
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Musings on Markets
FEBRUARY 8, 2025
In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. The second set of inputs are prices of risk, in both the equity and debt markets, with the former measured by equity risk premiums , and the latter by default spreads.
Musings on Markets
APRIL 7, 2025
trillion in value last week, a 9.24% decline in value from the Friday close on March 28, 2025. There was undoubtedly some panic selling on Friday, but the flight to safety, whether it be in moving into treasuries or high dividend paying stocks, was muted. US equities had the biggest decline in dollar value terms, losing $5.3
Musings on Markets
OCTOBER 4, 2023
While the rise in treasury rates has been less dramatic this year, rates have continued to rise across the term structure: US Treasury While short term rates rose sharply in the first half of the year, and long term rates stabilized, the third quarter has sen a reversal, with short term rates now stabilizing and long term rates rising.
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 17, 2024
To capture the market's mood, I back out the expected return (and equity risk premium) that investors are pricing in, through an implied equity risk premium: Put simply, the expected return is an internal rate of return derived from the pricing of stocks, and the expected cash flows from holding them, and is akin to a yield to maturity on bonds.
Musings on Markets
JULY 17, 2023
In my third post at the start of 2023, I looked at US treasuries, the long-touted haven of safety for investors. In 2022, they were in the eye on the storm, with the ten-year US treasury bond depreciating in price by more than 19% during the year, the worst year for US treasury returns in a century.
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