Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

In my second data update post from the start of this year , I looked at US equities in 2022, with the S&P 500 down almost 20% during the year and the NASDAQ, overweighted in technology, feeling even more pain, down about a third, during the year. US Equities in 2023: Into the Weeds! that was lost last year.

Marketability 98

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 24, 2024

In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery.

Treasury 52

Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.

Equity 129

Equity Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 129

Harvard Corporate Governance

FEBRUARY 3, 2025

Posted by Arthur Korteweg (USC), Stavros Panageas (UCLA), and Anand Systla (UCLA), on Monday, February 3, 2025 Editor's Note: Arthur Korteweg is an Associate Professor of Finance and Business Economics at USC Marshall School of Business, Stavros Panageas is a Professor of Finance at UCLA Anderson School of Management, and Anand Systla is a Ph.D.

Equity 152

Equity Risk Premium Finance Marketability 152

Musings on Markets

MAY 3, 2025

I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. Equities: Storm Clouds gather (and dissipate)!

Marketability 95

Marketability Start-ups Treasury Risk Premium 95

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

The Debt Trade off As a prelude to examining the debt and equity tradeoff, it is best to first nail down what distinguishes the two sources of capital. To me, the key distinction between debt and equity lies in the nature of the claims that its holders have on cash flows from the business.

Equity 77

Equity EBITDA Risk Premium Gross Debt 77

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2025

Entering 2025, the gap between intrinsic and treasury rates has narrowed , as the market consensus settles in on expectations that inflation will stay about the Fed-targeted 2% and that economic activity will be boosted by tax cuts and a business-friendly administration.

Banking 70

Banking Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 70

Musings on Markets

APRIL 20, 2025

For the market, it is often built on papers (or books) that look at the historical data on what equity markets have delivered as returns over long periods, relative to what you would have made investing elsewhere. Contrarian Investing: The Psychological Tests! In the abstract, it is easy to understand the appeal of contrarian investing.

Start-ups 136

Start-ups Price to Book Marketability Equity 136

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2025

I graph the performance of the five AI stocks highlighted in the earlier section, throwing in the Meta and Microsoft for good measure, on a daily basis in 2025. YouTube Video Nvidia Valuations Nvidia valuation in September 2024 (Pre DeepSeek) Nvidia valuation in January 2025 (Post DeepSeek)

Start-ups 134

Start-ups Marketability Technology Risk Premium 134

Musings on Markets

MARCH 15, 2025

Thus, my estimates of equity risk premiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies. That said, to value companies today, I have no choice but to bring in the economics and politics of the world that these companies inhabit.

Start-ups 131

Start-ups Risk Premium Marketability Equity 131

Reynolds Holding

MARCH 25, 2025

17] See [link] (showing the United States has among the lowest equity risk premiums in the world); Luzi Hail and Christian Leuz, International Differences in the Cost of Equity Capital: Do Legal Institutions and Securities Regulation Matter?, 11, 2025). [20] 12, 2025). [21] 12, 2025). [22]

Corporate Finance 45

Corporate Finance Finance Banking Marketability 45

Global Finance

OCTOBER 29, 2024

We’ve seen dramatic improvements with companies addressing maturities due in 2025, but also a lot of progress on maturities due out to 2026. The risk looks a lot better, and all those reasons support the soft-landing thesis. There are certain sectors that we think are offering better risk/reward.

Start-ups 98

Start-ups Finance Private Equity Firm Equity 98

Reynolds Holding

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Strong empirical evidence shows the United States has a lower cost of equity capital than comparable countries and that this lower cost is attributable in part to an institutional design that protects the independence of securities regulators and assures strong enforcement. In the United States, the cost of capital is lower than elsewhere.

Systematic Risk 45

Systematic Risk Marketability Equity Risk Premium 45

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

The results, broken down broadly by geography are in the table below: As you can see, the aggregate market cap globally was up 12.17%, but much of that was the result of a strong US equity market. That process of risk analysis and estimating risk premiums starts by understanding why some countries are riskier than others.

Risk Premium 69

Risk Premium Start-ups Enterprise Value Equity 69