Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. The second set of inputs are prices of risk, in both the equity and debt markets, with the former measured by equity risk premiums , and the latter by default spreads.

Risk Premium 74

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 74

Equidam

APRIL 26, 2025

Critiquing Unsuitable Methods for High-Growth Startups Several traditional or overly simplistic methods fail to adequately capture the unique characteristics of technology startups. butcher, barber) where assets are tangible and customer acquisition straightforward, it breaks down for technology startups.

Discounted Cash Flow 59

Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Value Book Value Beta 59

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2024

In short, if you don't like betas and have disdain for modern portfolio theory, your choice should not be to abandon risk measurement all together, but to come up with an alternative risk measure that is more in sync with your view of the world.

Risk Premium 121

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 121

Equidam

MAY 14, 2025

Categorisation poses a significant challenge in startup valuation, with investors and founders frequently mixing up markets, business models, industries, and underlying technologies. Equidam Category List ) Development Stage (Intrinsic Risk Factors) Development Stage focuses on intrinsic risk factors tied to the startups maturity.

Risk Premium 64

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Beta Market Risk 64

Equidam

APRIL 22, 2025

.” De-Risking the Future: The Role of Current Traction, Team, and Milestones If valuation is about the future, what role does the present play? While not a reward for the past, a startup’s current state its traction, team, technology, and milestones is critically important. [4] This de-risks the product/technology aspect.

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups 52

Equidam

APRIL 22, 2025

10] , [23] , [2] Discount Rate: The rate used to discount future cash flows is typically the cost of equity, calculated via the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): Cost of Equity = Risk-Free Rate + Beta * Market Risk Premium. [23] 23] Risk-Free Rate: Tied to government bond yields (e.g.,

Discounted Cash Flow 64

Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Value Marketability EBITDA 64