Musings on Markets

JULY 31, 2025

Country Risk - Equity Risk Premiums My interest in country risk stems almost entirely from my work in corporate finance and valuation, since this risk finds its way into the costs of equity and capital that are critical ingredients in both disciplines.

Risk Premium

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the rate on that investment becomes the base on which you build, to get to expected returns on risky assets and investments. What is a risk free investment? Why does the risk-free rate matter?

Risk-free Rate

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

The US treasury market, considered by some still as a safe haven, was anything but safe or a haven, especially at the long maturities, as long term rates soared, with inflation (not the Fed) being the key driver. Since inflation was 6.42% in 2022, the real return on a US 10-year treasury bond was -22.79%.

Treasury

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 5, 2023

In short, the expected return on a risky investment can be constructed as the sum of the returns you can expect on a guaranteed investment, i.e., a riskfree rate, and a risk premium, which will scale up as risk increases. The risk premium that you demand has different names in different markets.

Risk Premium

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 24, 2024

Government Bond/Bill Rates in 2023 I will start by looking at government bond rates across the world, with the emphasis on US treasuries, which suffered their worst year in history in 2022, down close to 20% for the year, as interest rates surged. The Fed Effect: Where's the beef? The Fed Effect: Where's the beef?

Treasury

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

The consensus can be wrong : A few months ago, I made the mistake of watching Moneyheist, a show on Netflix, based upon its high audience ratings on Rotten Tomatoes , and as I wasted hours on this abysmal show, I got a reminder that crowds can be wrong, and sometimes woefully so.

Risk Premium