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Country Risk 2025: The Story behind the Numbers!

Musings on Markets

At the start of July, I updated my estimates of equity risk premiums for countries, in an semiannual ritual that goes back almost three decades. As with some of my other data updates, I have mixed feelings about publishing these numbers. On the second dimension, exposure to violence , the effects on business are manifold.

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Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data

Musings on Markets

It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and running, and I plan to use this post to describe my data sample, my processes for computing industry statistics and the links to finding them. In the table below, we compare the changes in regional market capitalizations (in $ millions) over time.

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Data Update 6 for 2025: From Macro to Micro - The Hurdle Rate Question!

Musings on Markets

I spend most of my time in the far less rarefied air of corporate finance and valuation, where businesses try to decide what projects to invest in, and investors attempt to estimate business value.

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Data Update 4 for 2022: Risk = Danger + Opportunity!

Musings on Markets

In this post, I will start with a working definition of riskt that we can get some degree of agreement about, and then look at multiple measures of risk, both at the company and country level. In corporate finance, this takes the form of a hurdle rate , a minimum acceptable return on an investment, for it to be funded.

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Marking Time: A new year, a fresh semester and its class time!

Musings on Markets

I also start thinking about my passion, which is teaching, the spring semester to come, and the classes that I will be teaching, repeating a process that I have gone through every year since 1984, my first year as a teacher. Face up to uncertainty, rather than avoid or deny it : Uncertainty is a feature of investing/ business, not a bug.

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Data Update 1 for 2024: The data speaks, but what does it say?

Musings on Markets

First, these categorizations were created close to twenty years ago, when I first started looking a global data, and many countries that were emerging markets then have developed into more mature markets now. Beta & Risk 1. Financing Flows 5. Return on Equity 1. Debt Ratios & Fundamentals 1. Debt Details 1. Buybacks 2.

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Data Update 5 for 2024: Profitability - The End Game for Business?

Musings on Markets

In this post, I start by looking at the end game for businesses, and how that choice plays out in investment rules for these businesses, and then examine how much businesses generated in profits in 2023, scaled to both revenues and invested capital. The End Game in Business If you start a business, what is your end game?