Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021).

Risk Premium 80

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 80

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

Interest Rates and Inflation Inflation and interest rates are intertwined, and when their paths deviate, as they sometimes do, there is always a reckoning. Put simply, no central bank, no matter how powerful, can force market interest rates down, if inflation expectations stay low, or up, if investor are anticipating high inflation.

Risk-free Rate 84

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 84

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first is that the Fed Funds rate is currently close to zero, limiting the Fed's capacity to signal with lower rates. for the year are at war with its concurrent promise to keep rates low; after all, adding those numbers up yields a intrinsic risk free rate of 8.7%. Riskfree rate will rise.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

In a sign of how volatile inflation expectations have been over the last year, I looked at the probabilities that the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis estimates for inflation rates exceeding 2.5% Consequently, as inflation increases, equity risk premiums will tend to increase.

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55