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Market Bipolarity: Exuberance versus Exhaustion!

Musings on Markets

Price of Risk The drop in stock and bond prices in the third quarter of 2023 can partly be attributed to rising interest rates, but how much of that drop is due to the price of risk changing? My assessment is a bit of a cop-out, since they are built on current interest rate levels and consensus earnings estimates.

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Data Update 3 for 2024: Interest Rates in 2023 - A Rule-breaking Year!

Musings on Markets

It is entirely possible that there will be a recession in 2024 or even in 2025, but what good is a signal that is two or three years ahead of what it is signaling? Other Currencies The rise in interest rates that I chronicled for the United States played out in other currencies, as well.