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In Search of a Steady State: Inflation, Interest Rates and Value

Musings on Markets

There are three possible explanations for the divergence: Short term versus Long term : The consumer survey extracts an expectation of inflation in the near term, whereas the treasury markets are providing a longer term perspective, since I am using ten-year rates to derive the market-implied inflation.

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Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities!

Musings on Markets

trillion on their market capitalization at the end of 2019. Historical Equity Risk Premium The conventional wisdom, at least as taught in business schools and practiced by appraisers, is that the only practice way to estimate equity risk premiums for the future is to use equity risk premiums earned in the past.

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Use of Discounted Cash Flow Approaches in US GAAP Accounting

ThomsonReuters

Discounted cash flow approaches are also utilized within other functions of an organization, such as treasury, budgeting, financial planning and analysis, and tax planning. The adjustment added to the risk-free rate to arrive at the risk-adjusted rate is often referred to as the “risk premium.”

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Inflation and Investing: False Alarm or Fair Warning?

Musings on Markets

Interest rates : To understand the link between expected inflation and interest rates, consider the Fisher equation, where a nominal riskfree interest rate (which is what treasury bond rates) can be broken down into expected inflation and expected real interest rate components.

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Data Update 1 for 2021: A (Data) Look Back at a Most Forgettable Year (2020)!

Musings on Markets

For instance, I have always computed the present value of lease commitments in future years and treated that value as debt, a practice that IFRS and GAAP have adopted in 2019, but that computation requires explicit disclosures of lease commitments in future years.

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Data Update 2 for 2022: US Stocks kept winning in 2021, but…

Musings on Markets

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021).

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Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update

Musings on Markets

After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my definition of a crisis.