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Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data

Musings on Markets

Thus, as you peruse my historical data on implied equity risk premiums or PE ratios for the S&P 500 over time, you may be tempted to compute averages and use them in your investment strategies, or use my industry averages for debt ratios and pricing multiples as the target for every company in the peer group, but you should hold back.

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Data Update 6 for 2025: From Macro to Micro - The Hurdle Rate Question!

Musings on Markets

In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. The second set of inputs are prices of risk, in both the equity and debt markets, with the former measured by equity risk premiums , and the latter by default spreads.

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Data Update 4 for 2022: Risk = Danger + Opportunity!

Musings on Markets

Relative Risk Measures Before we embark on how to measure relative risk, where there can be substantial disagreement, let me start with a statement on which there should be agreement. At the start of 2022, the ten sectors (US) with the highest and lowest relative risk (unlettered betas), are shown below.

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Data Update 1 for 2024: The data speaks, but what does it say?

Musings on Markets

Beta & Risk 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2. I also have implied equity risk premiums (forward-looking and dynamic estimate of what investors are pricing stocks to earn in the future) for the S&P 500 going back annually to 1960 and monthly to 2008, and equity risk premiums for countries.

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Data Update 4 for 2021: The Hurdle Rate Question!

Musings on Markets

I know that many of you are not fans of modern portfolio theory or betas, but ultimately, there is no way around the requirement that you need to measure how risky a business, relative to other businesses. Download country ERPs What does this mean? (More on that issue in a future data update post.) as mature markets.

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The Zomato IPO: A Bet on Big Markets and Platforms!

Musings on Markets

History and Business Model Zomato was founded in 2008 by Deepinder Goyal and Pankaj Chaddah, as Foodiebay, in response to the difficulties that they noticed that their office mates were having in downloading menus for restaurants. Overall, I will attach a likelihood of failure of 10%, reflecting this balance.

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Marking Time: A new year, a fresh semester and its class time!

Musings on Markets

Last week, was my data week, where I download and analyze data on all publicly traded companies, listed anywhere in the world, and I will post extensively on what the numbers look like after a most tumultuous year. As we approach the turn of the calendar year, I have my own set of rituals that prepare me for the new year.