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Beta & Risk 1. Equity RiskPremiums 2. I also have implied equity riskpremiums (forward-looking and dynamic estimate of what investors are pricing stocks to earn in the future) for the S&P 500 going back annually to 1960 and monthly to 2008, and equity riskpremiums for countries.
I know that many of you are not fans of modern portfolio theory or betas, but ultimately, there is no way around the requirement that you need to measure how risky a business, relative to other businesses. (More on that issue in a future data update post.) But what if the company is looking at a project in Nigeria or Bangladesh?
Revenues did drop in 2020, as COVID restrictions put a crimp on the restaurant business, but the quarterly data suggests that business is coming back. That number was 23.13% in FY 2020, but dropped to 21.03% in FY 2021, as shut downs put a crimp on business.
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity riskpremiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.
Thus, you and I can disagree about whether beta is a good measure of risk, but not on the principle that no matter what definition of risk you ultimately choose, riskier investments need higher hurdles than safer investments.
He is member of the Beta Gamma Sigma Honor Society, Financial Executives International, and the National Association of Corporate Directors (NACD). Dr. Everett also has an M&A Advisory and business valuation practice. He was a on the Board of Trustees of the International Valuation Standards Council finishing his second term in 2023.
In some cases, a change in regulatory or tax law can put the business model for a company or many company at risk. I confess that the line between whether nature or man is to blame for some catastrophes is a gray one and to illustrate, consider the COVID crisis in 2020. Note that these higher discount rates apply in both scenarios.
An Optimizing Tool In my second and third data posts for this year, I chronicled the effects of rising interest rates and riskpremiums on costs of equity and capital. In computing the latter, I used the current debt ratios for firms, but made no attempt to evaluate whether these mixes were "right" or not.
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