Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2024

In short, if you don't like betas and have disdain for modern portfolio theory, your choice should not be to abandon risk measurement all together, but to come up with an alternative risk measure that is more in sync with your view of the world.

Risk Premium 93

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 93

Brian DeChesare

MAY 3, 2023

In our forecast, Cash rises too much, and Debt / EBITDA goes from 5.0x Dividend Discount Model, Part 4: Present Value of Terminal Value and Dividends Since the Dividend Discount Model is based on Equity Value, not Enterprise Value, the Discount Rate is the Cost of Equity: Risk-Free Rate + Equity Risk Premium * Levered Beta.

Dividends 64

Dividends Terminal Value Enterprise Value Equity 64

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

An Optimizing Tool In my second and third data posts for this year, I chronicled the effects of rising interest rates and risk premiums on costs of equity and capital. Debt to EBITDA, Interest Coverage Ratios If debt to capital is not a good measure for judging over or under leverage, what is?

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

By the same token, it is impossible to use a pricing metric (PE or EV to EBITDA), without a sense of the cross sectional distribution of that metric at the time. For example, I have seen it asserted that a stock that trades at less than book value is cheap or that a stock that trades at more than twenty times EBITDA is expensive.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends EBITDA Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

Beta & Risk 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2. EBIT & EBITDA multiple s 5. Working capital needs Thus, I compute pricing multiples based on revenues (EV to Sales, Price to Sales), earnings (PE, PEG), book value (PBV, EV to Invested Capital) or cash flow proxies (EV to EBITDA). Return on Equity 1. Buybacks 2.

Dividends 98

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2024

In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.

Equity 79

Equity Book Value Start-ups Corporate Finance 79

Valutico

OCTOBER 20, 2022

Practitioners assume the business is sold as a multiple of some financial metric like EBITDA, based on what they can see today for other businesses that were sold, and what these comparable trading multiples are. . Rf = Risk-free Rate. B = Beta. (Rm Rm – Rf) = Equity Market Risk Premium. EV/EBITDA Multiple.

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Value Weighted Average Cost of Capital Net Present Value 52