Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

Exacerbating the pain, corporate default spreads rose during the course of 2022: While default spreads rose across ratings classes, the rise was much more pronounced for the lowest ratings classes, part of a bigger story about risk capital that spilled across markets and asset classes. trillion in the first six months of 2023, 97.2%

Marketability 95

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 95

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

The results are similar if you break stocks down based upon price to book ratios or revenue growth rates. The Implied ERP - Start of 2022 I have computed the implied equity risk premium at the start of every month, since September 2008, and during crisis periods, I compute it every day.

Risk Premium 80

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 80

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

These assertions may very well be true, but cheap and expensive, at least in pricing terms, is relative, and looking at the data can help you detect rules of thumb that work from those that do not. I do report on a few market-wide data items especially on risk premiums for both equity and debt. Price to Book 3.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends EBITDA Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

Corporate Bonds: No Shortage of Risk Capital In my last post, I chronicled the movement in the equity risk premium, i.e. the price of risk in the equity market, during 2021, but the bond market has its own, and more measurable, price of risk in the form of corporate default spreads.

Risk-free Rate 84

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 84

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

Consider, for instance, an investor who picks stocks based upon price to book ratios, who finds a stock trading at a price to book ratio of 1.5. In the same dataset where I compute historical equity risk premiums, I report historical returns on corporate bonds in two ratings classes (Moody’s Aaa and Baa ratings).

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

The overriding message in all of this data is that Russia/Ukraine war has unleashed fears in the bond market, and once unleashed that fear has pushed up worries about default and default risk premia across the board.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

Risk Premiums and Failure Risk : By itself, inflation has no direct effect on equity risk premiums, but it remains true that higher levels of inflation are associated with more uncertainty about future inflation. Consequently, as inflation increases, equity risk premiums will tend to increase.

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55