Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. The rise in rates transmitted to corporate bond market rates, with a concurrent rise in default spreads exacerbating the damage to investors.

Treasury 74

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Equity 74

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the rate on that investment becomes the base on which you build, to get to expected returns on risky assets and investments. What is a risk free investment? Why does the risk-free rate matter?

Risk-free Rate 80

Risk-free Rate Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 80

Musings on Markets

MAY 6, 2022

The nature of markets is that they are never quite settled, as investors recalibrate expectations constantly and reset prices. Clearly, we are not in one of those time periods, as markets approach bipolar territory, with big moves up and down.

Risk Premium 92

Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups Equity 92

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2024

In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023 , driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound.

Risk Premium 93

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 93

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 11, 2023

It is also the aspect of country risk, where there is the longest history of measurement, and there are widely used measurement tools. Through time, these defaults have led to consequences that range from mildly negative to catastrophic, with some defaults triggering invasions and political revolutions.

Risk Premium 76

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Marketability 76

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2022

In the first few weeks of 2022, we have had repeated reminders from the market that risk never goes away for good, even in the most buoyant markets, and that when it returns, investors still seem to be surprised that it is there.

Risk Premium 67

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 67

Harvard Corporate Governance

JANUARY 24, 2023

2022 brought a halt to a nearly unabated 12-year run of booming credit markets and “lower for longer” interest rates. This post is based on a Wachtell Lipton memorandum by Mr. Sobolewski, Mr. Pessin, Mr. Simwinga, Joshua Feltman , Michael Benn , and Emily Johnson. Average yields for single-B bonds rose from under 4.7%

Finance 231

Finance Risk-free Rate Marketability Banking 231

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 5, 2023

If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. The risk premium that you demand has different names in different markets.

Risk Premium 78

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Treasury 78

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

Investors are constantly in search of a single metric that will tell them whether a market is under or over valued, and consequently whether they should buying or selling holdings in that market. Note that nothing that I have said so far is premised on modern portfolio theory, or any academic view of risk premiums.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Equity Dividends 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even in the long term. at the start of that year.

Equity 70

Equity Risk Premium Start-ups Dividends 70

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 26, 2023

My last valuation of Tesla was in November 2021, towards its market peak, and given its steep fall from grace, in conjunction with Elon Musk's Twitter experiment, it is time for a revisit. per share in 2022. per share in 2022.

Start-ups 80

Start-ups Marketability Risk Premium Equity 80

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

Thus, looking at only the companies in the S&P 500 may give you more reliable data, with fewer missing observations, but your results will reflect what large market cap companies in any sector or industry do, rather than what is typical for that industry.

Dividends 98

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 98

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

The first of the is as companies scale up, there will be a point where they will hit a growth wall, and their growth will converge on the growth rate for the economy. In short, I am assuming that the price cuts and cost pressures of the fourth quarter are more representative of what Tesla will face in the future, as competition steps up.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Marketability 99

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

The other is pragmatic , since it is almost impossible to value a company or business, without a clear sense of how risk exposure varies across the world, since for many companies, either the inputs to or their production processes are in foreign markets or the output is outside domestic markets.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52